For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning...........and soon, to generate residential heating:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/12410/
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
October Natural Gas Called Near Even, Approaching ‘Cluster’ of Support
8:44 AM
October natural gas futures were trading close to even Friday morning at around $2.778/MMBtu, with a seemingly range-bound market continuing to mull the implications of weekly government storage data that fell in line with expectations
Storage is Very Low for this time of year!! This is why the temperature forecast matters....in the Summer/cooling season and Winter/heating season.
Storage is just below the bottom of the previous 5 year range and also almost 700 bcf below last year at this time!
From Thursday: EIA number +63 bcf Neutral?
Comments from Natural Gas Intelligence after the number was reported:
EIA Storage Matches Consensus as Natural Gas Futures Response Mixed
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 63 Bcf build into Lower 48 gas stocks for the week ended Aug. 31, a number that fell in line with estimates
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (08/31/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 08/31/18 | 08/24/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 662 | 640 | 22 | 22 | 776 | -14.7 | 759 | -12.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 699 | 667 | 32 | 32 | 867 | -19.4 | 847 | -17.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 162 | 157 | 5 | 5 | 205 | -21.0 | 192 | -15.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 246 | 241 | 5 | 5 | 297 | -17.2 | 324 | -24.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 799 | 800 | -1 | -1 | 1,065 | -25.0 | 1,036 | -22.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 178 | 183 | -5 | -5 | 265 | -32.8 | 262 | -32.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 621 | 617 | 4 | 4 | 800 | -22.4 | 774 | -19.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,568 | 2,505 | 63 | 63 | 3,211 | -20.0 | 3,158 | -18.7 | |||||||||||||||||
This report, for the week ending August 31, 2018, will be the last report EIA publishes using the current sample. As previously announced, on Monday, September 10, 2018, at 3:00 p.m., EIA will revise estimates for the eight weeks covering July 13, 2018, through August 31, 2018, to gradually phase in the estimates from the new sample. For additional information, please see the notice of changes to the WNGSR: http://ir.eia.gov | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Below is the temperature average for the 7 day period used for the EIA storage report that came out Thursdayy at 9:30am. It was warmer than the previous 7 day period. Since more ng was used to generate more AC cooling during this period, the injection was a bit lower than the previous week(+70 bcf)
Natural gas hit some tough resistance recently. Even the hottest of the hot forecasts couldn't push us to $3 with very low storage.
Temperatures as we go out to late September are getting to the time of year that is not as important for cooling. The heating season will be coming up.
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
|
Seasonals based on historical prices thru 2007. These have changed in the last decade because of production in the Gulf(where hurricanes happen) being replaced with land based production(horizontal drilling/fracking), which has really been ramping up.
The link below is a more updated graph of seasonals for both natural gas and heating oil than the graph below.
https://commodityseasonality.com/energies/
By tjc - Sept. 6, 2018, 2:02 p.m.
Covered my short. Probably too soon. "A profit is a profit..."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By metmike - Sept. 6, 2018, 2:10 p.m.
A great profit and congratulations tjc!
Thanks again for sharing your trades with us.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By WxFollower - Sept. 6, 2018, 8:29 p.m.
Hey Mike,
I think you’re doing an incredible job keeping things active, especially in the trading related section. This board had largely gone to nothing on the trading side at least til you took over. You’re second to none! You post a whole lot of pertinent things and you copy and paste old posts to tie together recent days with the present. Kudos to you, sir!
However, I was wondering if you would consider shortening the old posts post in NG because I think it has gotten too long. Maybe take some of the oldest posts out? Currently, you have posts back 2 1/2 weeks. On my phone, it now takes a very long time to scroll to the bottom of the thread because of that post. Although I usually do, I think that may reduce how many folks will read to the bottom of the NG threads.
What do you think? Thanks in advance.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By tjc - Sept. 7, 2018, 9:48 a.m.
Looking for a recovery today in ngas and crude
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By metmike - Sept. 7, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
Larry,
I agree completely. Was going to do that the last couple of days but creature of habit kicked in.
Thanks!
Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:
Shoulder Season Dynamics Take Hold as October Natural Gas Stalls; Spot Gas Falls with Temps
Friday was a slow day for natural gas futures, bringing to a close a week that essentially solidified the general direction for prices expected in the coming weeks amid record production and cooler weather. While no major changes were reported in the latest weather outlooks, the Nymex October futures contract ended the day four-tenths of a cent higher at $2.776. November slipped one-tenth of a penny lower to $2.79.