There will continue to be a risk of excessive rains this week.............high confidence...........the next 2 days as Gordon's moisture merges with a Midwest weather system.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. Main  risk is heavy rains.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Saturday.   Hot West! Very cool in the Plains/Midwest..................cooler air is covering a lot of area this week, that was supposed to have heat in last week's forecast.

Highs days 3-7.
Cooler air Plains/Midwest/Great Lakes, Northeast to start next week. Starting to warm back up next week.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 7 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Warming up again next week to well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore.

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

Humid air in place from S.Midwest eastward.  Gulf of Mexico moisture +fairly high soil moisture. This H2O will continue to be used by our main weather maker the next 2 days. Added moisture will come from Gordon.

 Very dry air N.Plains to Upper Midwest.....which will come rushing in behind that system late in the weekend.

Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature. Heat Index is a big  factor over the Southeastern 1/3 or the US right now.

Everything has shifted southeast with a stalled cold front taking front stage!

The remnants of Gordon will soon merge with that weather system, which moves northeast over the weekend............followed by much drier/cooler weather.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image.  Rains with the Midwest cold front have shifted farther southeast. Rains from Gordon in the south have moved west. They will be merging soon.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.    Clouds from the Northeast across the S.Great Lakes/Midwest from a cold front.

Rains the past 24 hours.  Farther  southeast than recent days.

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Much of the Cornbelt was in great shape for early September so the crops were fed lots of yield making H2O in August.

Too wet in a zone across n.IA/s.MN to w.WI/nw.IL..............and the East Coast. It will get  wetter for an area just southeast of the wettest areas the next 2 days.

Drier next week, which will minimize the problems to the crops.

Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

Now we have had too much rain!  But the too much rain has shifted southeast as expected! It will come to an end very early next week and we will dry out.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in N.Missouri  and Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:     Positive anomalies greatest in the West.

In 5+ days:

Very warm West....... spreading back across the country.

In 10+ days:

Very warm for much of the country. Mid September heat is not mid July heat! Cold air Canada down to the border.

Day 15  Positive anomalies for much of the country. How warm will it be in the East?? Heat in mid September is not like heat in mid July! Cold in Canada.

The top map is the ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

Question HAD BEEN........how dominant will the heat ridge be in the SouthEast  as week 2 progresses?  As time has gone by, it's looking less and less like this will be a factor.......partly because of the time of the year(when heat ridges die off).

Powerful jet stream in Canada! How far south will it dip into the US and where? Cold air pooling in Canada during week 1...........will it surge across the border later this month?

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 22, 2018 12 UTC

The trend of less rain in week 2 has really continued here for the 5th day in a row.  

We continue to have a large area with BELOW average rain. Many areas will be water logged with excessive rains from` recent days and the drier weather will be just what the grain doctor ordered to minimize/lessen disease pressure and other issues from wet crops.

Early harvest, will not be so early in places that need awhile to dry out...........but week 2 should make things better and harvest pressure should increase later this month.

The heat in week 2 will assist in drying out the corn crop as well as the ground.  Hot weather from mid Sept onward is just loosing it's ability to be very bullish for natural gas because it can't stay hot enough for long enough anymore.

6-10 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

8-14 day Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

WHile the Cornbelt dries out next week the East Coast may be under the gun from Hurricane Florence. 

There is a heavy rain threat AND the threat for high winds, with huge waves likely.