We've been covering this for coffee here:

                                Re: Re: Re: : Re: coffee            

                By metmike - Sept. 28, 2026, 10:01 p.m.        

Last total 16 day rains for South America from the just out 18z GEFS:

Dark red=6 inches

Orange=8 inches

Bearish for coffee but too much rain for early planting of corn/beans in Southern Brazil with the crop likely to get planed late there this year. For instance, over 60% of the crop should be planted in Parana by the end of October, 90%+ by November 20. So it's still early.  Parana has been especially wet recently and has red/orange below. 

Rainfall anomalies from the last 12z European Ensemble model below.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif

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Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting reaches 3.4%, AgRural says

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/brazil-s-2026-27-soybean-planting-reaches-3-4-agrural-says-ce785adcdc81f020

• Despite excessive rainfall in some areas, Parana state remained the early leader in soybean planting, well ahead of Mato Grosso, where fieldwork has yet to gain momentum due to uneven rainfall distribution, AgRural said.
• Planting of Brazil's 2026/27 first corn crop reached 34% of the estimated area in the center-south region, compared with 27% a week earlier and 32% a year ago.

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The soils in Brazil don't hold water as well as our soils so they need more rain(and get more most of the time) but they also dry out quicker from heavy rains with less planting delays.