Excellento, Larry!

Anytime you want to start new threads here please do it!

YW. Latest from NHC has it land falling at a higher grade TS, 50 knots instead of 40 knots. It’s still a TD but on the verge of TS status.

It is now TS Edouard!

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Edouard Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
700 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 91.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

Discussion:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/312054.shtml?

Forecast graphic:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/312350.shtml?cone#contents

Rainfall:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/312350.shtml?rainqpf#contents

Larry,

I'm thinking this TS could have been part of the reason for cotton to trade almost limit up on Monday. 

The reality is that very little damage was done or expected but the cotton market is extremely bullish right now and reacting strongly to speculative bullish news!

The upside break out in the crude market for sure was bullish cotton (and as you mentioned, the location of this TS in the past was bullish for CL in the past, especially before horizontal fracking over land replaced much of the GOM production).

Thanks, Mike.

 I looked this morning to see if any news article mentioned Edouard as a direct factor for Monday’s CT rise, but couldn’t find any. However, we both know that often these articles miss things.

 The NE TX and W LA coastal region doesn’t grow much CT in relation to the overall U.S. crop.

I couldn't find anything either, Larry, so this was just a speculative/guess possibility and definitely not tradable weather. Maybe just a coincidence and INdirect response if the CL was the main reason and the TS helped crude higher.  

Were there minor shut ins in the GOM from this storm?

Mike, shut-ins were minimal at best from Edouard.

Thanks, Larry.

Like you stated, these heavy rains were north of the main cotton production areas.

However, if we look at the county map of TX cotton production below, we can see an overlap of several counties of high production in green and the orange excessive rain outlook at the bottom. 

https://www.fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ipad/production-maps/2026-08/US/us_US_P_cott.png

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Texas/Publications/County_Estimates/ce_maps/ce_cott.php

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/021449.shtml?ero#contents

Speaking of cotton........here's an update on the recently wild and bullish market.

Did we just have a buying exhaustion on Sunday Night/very early Monday??

                 Cotton           

                By metmike - Sept. 2, 2026, 3:58 p.m.