Get all the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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The metrics on this page and other places will be constantly updated below!
Monday, 4-27 looks like the worst day.
Day 1: Sunday 4-26-26. Categorical.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Day 2: Monday 4-27-26. Categorical risk.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Tornado risk, day 2: Strong tornadoes possible with this event, especially in the yellow shaded areas.
Day 3 categorical risk:
| SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COOKBOOK |
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/cookbook/
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Surface map late Monday, 12z GFS model forecast. Cold front crossing the Mississippi River into IL.
850 mb winds and moisture(5,000 feet=1 mile up) Monday Eve.
Strong, low level inflow/jet stream from the south with warm/humid air.
500 mb vorticity late Monday (18,000 feet=3+ miles up)
Strong positive vorticity advection hitting WI/IL/MO at this time. European model.
Vorticity from the GEFS model.
250 mb jet stream (32,000 feet=6 miles up). 120+ mph jet streak left front quadrant in IL/IA is especially dangerous because there is added upper level divergence in that quadrant that LIFTS the air below which adds to upward moving air parcels(destabilization).
HABYTIME MINI LECTURE 26:
QUADRANTING A JET STREAK
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/601/
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Get all of Jeff's wonderful tutorials here:
| THE ULTIMATE WEATHER EDUCATION WEBSITE |
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-wind-chill-heat-index
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
Updated this page at 6:05 am Monday: The risk for strong tornadoes has been adjusted southward early this morning. Highest is now just west of Evansville but we are included in the zone with an elevated risk for a strong, EF-3 type tornado(winds of 136 mph+).
metmike: The highest risk for strong tornadoes is northwest of Evansville, towards central IL but a strong tornado can't be ruled out here.
From our regional NWS office in Paducah, KY.
Significant Severe Storms Possible Monday
https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/DssPacket.pdf
The type of tornado possible today is an EF3. This means 136 mph+.
Enhanced Fuita scale
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Fujita_scale
| EFU | Unknown | No surveyable damage |
|---|---|---|
| EF0 | 65–85 mph | Light damage |
| EF1 | 86–110 mph | Moderate damage |
| EF2 | 111–135 mph | Considerable damage |
| EF3 | 136–165 mph | Severe damage |
| EF4 | 166–200 mph | Devastating damage |
| EF5 | >200 mph | Incredible damage |
Here's the deal on wind and damage.
As wind increases the damage massively increases on an exponential scale. This applies to ALL wind.
Severe storms, hurricanes and especially tornadoes that have the strongest winds of all, which means the tornadoes with winds over 150 mph have incredible damage.
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A 150 mph wind does 256X more damage than a 75 mph wind. Let's repeat that. A 150 mph wind does 256x more damage than a 75 mph wind!
Hurricane Damage Potential
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential
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Less than 1% of tornadoes are F4 or F5 but they kill 67% of the people!
Note that the majority of tornadoes, F0 and F1= 74%(on the old scale) only killed 4% of people and they were probably outside or in a mobile home.
The F4 and F5's were just 1% but caused 67% of deaths.
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https://www.weather.gov/ama/supercell
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Excellent presentation at this link below that describes the different types of tornadoes and the damage they cause. Keep in mind that the EF4 and EF5 tornadoes are extremely rare. Less than 1% of tornadoes are this strong.
The EF4 and EF5 tornadoes will usually have the HIGH, level 5 risk earlier that day.
Mike Simon Tornado Damage Intensity; Enhanced Fujita Scale
This is the type of threat to go to your safe spot when a tornado warning is issued. Don't be scared..........be prepared! Car accidents kill 1,000 times more people every year than tornadoes. We accept that risk and put on seat belts for safety.
There will be times when we have much higher threats that justify being especially vigilant because those times will include the threat of violent tornadoes EF4 or even EF5 tornadoes(200 mph+) that are rare but kill the most people. That's when being in a safe place really saves lives. An EF3 with winds of 150 mph is possible today. This is elevated and justifies going to your safe place with tornado warnings this evening.
When will those highest risk times be? We will know and identify them WELL BEFORE it happens.
1. When the Storm Prediction Center has at least a moderate, level 4 out of 5 risk. When they have a 5 out of 5 high risk, it's imperative to stay tuned during that type of severe weather outbreak and be ready to act, while still keeping in mind that even during the worst tornado outbreaks, what we are doing is REDUCING the risk of being killed by a tornado from a very small number to a MUCH SMALLER number by taking actions.
2. The Storm Prediction Center will use this verbiage: "This is a particularly dangerous situation".
We know what conditions cause those type of tornadoes with high confidence days in advance but will NEVER be able to predict them with pinpoint accuracy until the storms causing them are in progress,
All tornadoes are absolutely NOT CREATED EQUAL!!!
The total lives lost from 1,000 EF0 tornadoes might not add up to the lives lost from just 1 really bad EF5 tornado!
A 150 mph EF3 wind has 256 times more damaging power than a 75 mph EFO wind!
A 225 mph EF5 wind has 256 X 256 times more damaging power than a 75 mph EFO wind!!!!
65,000 times more damaging power in a strong EF5 tornado compared to an EF0 tornado!!!. That's not a mistake or typo in the math.
That's based on physical laws and tens of thousands of surveys of tornado damage which were used to contruct the Enhanced Fujita tornado scale.
Mike Simon Tornado Damage Intensity; Enhanced Fujita Scale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-653tSCB68
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Understanding this in 2026 and having the technology to warn people long before the life threatening weather makes it a much, MUCH safer world compared to 100 years ago. People in that age found out about the strong tornadoes or other extreme weather events...............when they were actually getting clobbered by them!
Despite this, there are still limitations based on the worst EF5 tornadoes like the one that struck Joplin, MO in May 2011!
Joplin tornado
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joplin_tornado
We should note that the scale below is LOGARITHMIC in order to keep the data manageable because of the tremendous drop in values.
The highest numbers on the left top/left that are approaching 10 deaths/million are actually 100+ times greater than the lowest numbers on the right that are LESS THAN .1 deaths/million!
The Joplin tornado in May 2011 caused the huge spike higher and 1 outlying year since the 1970's.
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Climate change has been helping too by warming the highest latitudes the most and weakening cold fronts and jet streams! This has reduced the number of the strongest tornadoes by around 50%!
This thread is about TORNADOES not about other impacts from climate change.
May 29th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Weather becomes LESS extreme in several realms when you reduce the planets temperature contrast with latitude!
4-27-26: An EF5 tornado of 200 mph is NOT likely today because the magnitude of the jet stream, instability and other elements that play a role, while being robust for 150 mph tornadoes, fall short of the extremes we usually see that generate the most deadly tornadoes of all. It's not impossible, just unlikely. Again, don't be scared just be prepared.
Try to avoid being out when the storms will likely hit. If you are in a car, try to avoid travel on roads where a tree can fall on your car.. You are always safe from lightening INSIDE your vehicle. Lighting will pass thru the metal exterior and be grounded thru the tires. Never be outside with lightening, even garden variety thundershowers.
Ideally, be home when a tornado warning is issued. If the storm has a history of tornadoes or has the high potential for EF2+ tornadoes, go to your safe place for a TORNADO warning, until the storm has passed. Lowest level, with as many walls between you and the exterior.
With EF0 and EF1 tornadoes (less than 110 mph) you're good just staying away from windows in a permanent structure. Do NOT stay in mobile homes.
