NG 1/12/2025+
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Started by metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 3:40 p.m.

Previous thread with the last post below :

                NG 12/25/24+ and Merry Chistmas                        

                64 responses |               

                Started by WxFollower - Dec. 25, 2024, 12:09 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109155/

           +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

        

                Re: Re: Re: Re:  NG 12/25/24+ and Merry Christmas                                    

                By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 3:37 p.m.            

                            

+8.5 HDDs on the last 12z European Ensemble vs the previous 0z but look at the trend at the end DOWNWARD!


Look at the plunge lower in HDDs on the last 12z GEFS. -9 HDDs vs the previous 06 run.


I have never seem the models in such disagreement at the end of the 2 week period!!                     


            

                

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 3:57 p.m.
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Here's a comparison of the 3 main models at the end of the period, 360 hours which is 15 days.

1. European ensemble. Deep trough/negative anomalies in Southeast Canada, extended to northern US. Ridging/positive anomalies off the West Coast. Modest positive anomalies southeast to south. 

2. Canadian ensemble. Deep negative anomalies West to Plains to Upper Midwest. Strong positive anomalies/ridge building Eastern 1/3rd of US! This is brand new!

3. GEFS ensemble.  Modest negative anomalies in the West to Rockies. STRONG positive anomalies ridging eastern 1/2. Almost the opposite of the European model in the placement of the biggest anomaly centers. 



All the models do agree on NEW ridging, positive anomalies in the Southeast. Question is how strong will this new upper level ridging be and how far north and west will it extend?

Where will the the negative anomalies be to the north and west of the NEW ridging??? 

Looks like a potentially much wetter pattern for at least the eastern 1/3rd of the country, possibly working back into the Midwest? Some in the form of snow.

Potentially much warmer in the Southeast and surrounding areas. Lots of uncertainty.

++++++++++++++++++

Before jumping on the huge warm up bandwagon of the GEFS, the last 12z Canadian model below still has impressive cross polar flow gushing out of Siberia, thru Canada and defining ARCTIC cold fronts crossing into the US:

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz


https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 5:59 p.m.
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How much higher will NG open up with a huge gap likely?


By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 6:01 p.m.
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+3,500/contract.   Will this be a gap and crap?

This is definitely a selling set up for me, especially........if the GEFS is correct!

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 6:10 p.m.
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The HO opened slightly higher then took off like a rocket, up over 5c, with RB only +2.5c.

By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 6:30 p.m.
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Huge upside break away gap higher above previous highs on the chart.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 35 years

2. 10 years

3. 1 year

4. 1 month

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2025, 12:28 a.m.
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7 day temps for this Thursdays EIA. Major cold in the Eastern 2/3rds, Mild out West. Huge drawdown coming up!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

By metmike - Jan. 13, 2025, 10:28 a.m.
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                Re: Re: Re: NG 1/12/2025+           

                          By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 6:01 p.m.                    

+3,500/contract.   Will this be a gap and crap?

This is definitely a selling set up for me, especially........if the GEFS is correct!

+++++++++++++++

That's exactly what it turned out to be! We completely filled the massive gap and have even been lower for the day, now about unchanged  and right around $4 but with extreme volatility that makes it almost impossible to trade.

                                    


NG 1/12/2025+
0 likes
By metmike - Jan. 14, 2025, 12:49 p.m.
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This cold may have staying power into early  February?

But it will shift farther west with an upper level ridge building in the East.

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2025, 10:29 a.m.
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EIA report:

-258 Bcf. That's a huge drawdown but my have been expected:

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 10, 2025   |  Released: January 16, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 23, 2025 

                                                                                                                                               

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/10/24)
5-year average
(2020-24) 
Region01/10/2501/03/25net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East669  737  -68  -68   727  -8.0  708  -5.5  
Midwest808  881  -73  -73   888  -9.0  842  -4.0  
Mountain240  255  -15  -15   211  13.7  172  39.5  
Pacific283  293  -10  -10   262  8.0  227  24.7  
South Central1,114  1,207  -93  -93   1,137  -2.0  1,089  2.3  
   Salt326  364  -38  -38   332  -1.8  319  2.2  
   Nonsalt788  844  -56  -56   805  -2.1  770  2.3  
Total3,115  3,373  -258  -258   3,226  -3.4  3,038  2.5  
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,115 Bcf as of Friday, January 10, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 258 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 111 Bcf less than last year at this time and 77 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,038 Bcf. At 3,115 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

+++++++++

1pm: European model was a whopping +10 HDDs and NG took off like a rocket.

By tjc - Jan. 16, 2025, 5:47 p.m.
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  California politians massaged the budgets for many years to fullfil their stupid 'green', tree hugging, animal/fish loving agendas only to expose their constituents to horrible loss.   Absolutely no vegetation control or forward thinking, like say Finland. 

  It would not be proper, but not a dime for them UNTIL Hawaii AND North Carolina are restored!

  AND there should be restrictions on the money, say $2000 for every illegal who California assists ICE in permanently removing from USA


belongs in California fires

By WxFollower - Jan. 16, 2025, 7:09 p.m.
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EIA expectation range was -227 to -275. So, tye -259 was pretty neutral. Folks didn’t want to sell on the -259 bcf because of the extreme Siberian cold on the way early next week.

By metmike - Jan. 17, 2025, 9:22 a.m.
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tjc,

I copied your post in the thread discussing this topic. Thanks

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: California fires            

            

                                

By metmike - Jan. 17, 2025, 9:24 a.m.
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The overnight 0z EE was -7 HDDs bearish so ng came tumbling down:

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2025, 3:45 p.m.
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Last 12z European Ensemble. Note the big drop in HDDs, even getting below average by a bit at the end of the period. Most indicators suggest a very mild week 3 but the last 12z EE has a COLDER solution with regards to the position of the main weather features, with an upper level trough trying to dig back into the Great Lakes.

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2025, 5:54 p.m.
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Downside breakaway gap lower on the open??

That would be valid on the daily. It would need to be a big one to be below last weeks lows.

UPDATE: 5pm. The markets must be closed for MLK Day!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas




By metmike - Jan. 19, 2025, 5:56 p.m.
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The EIA report on Thursday will be another big drawdown!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php


By metmike - Jan. 20, 2025, 7:36 p.m.
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As expected, we gapped lower on the open but are still just above last weeks LOWS at the moment.  More than $5,000/contract lower than last weeks spike high which likely is THE HIGH for this move, considering the much milder forecast(near average temps).


By metmike - Jan. 20, 2025, 7:43 p.m.
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HDDs for the last 4 runs of the GEFS, purple is the latest 18z run. Temps back to a a bit ABOVE average with HDDs just below the average green line with has peaked now. Average temps for the rest of the cold season will be increasing (HDDs going lower based on the historical average).

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2025, 1:46 a.m.
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0z models came out colder. The gap lower is almost filled.

By metmike - Jan. 21, 2025, 11 a.m.
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The gap lower to open this week was just barely closed shortly after midnight from a colder model run but this was met with selling pressure after the colder days were dialed in.

Models are very much in disagreement on what happens late in week 2. Some allow mild zonal flow to overspread the entire country. Some have troughing being reestablished in the Midwest/East and with cross polar flow, a renewal of cold invasions.

What do I think? 

Alot of the indicators show us warming up(+AO, +NAO, PNA dropping to 0) but it also looks like the atmosphere could just be in a reloading phase, getting ready to revert back to the cold pattern over the recent past.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2025, 9:05 a.m.
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HDDs on the left, down to around average still on this last 0z European Ensemble model, which was close to the previous 12z run. I'm leaning colder and think the models are UNDER appreciating the tenacious cross polar flow thats been transporting air from Siberia, thru Canada and dumping it into the US.


Look at all the streamlines in Northwest Canada!!! Air masses tracking parallel to them are coming from Siberia into northwest Canada, then farther south, where they can characterize the air masses entering the US behind some of the cold fronts. However, there is not much support for this air to penetrate very far south in the pattern depicted below to start week 3! So Canada could be brutally cold but the air masses tracking into the US could moderate a great deal. More uncertainty than usual at the extended time frame!

6z GEFS below.

0z EE below with anomalies.

By metmike - Jan. 23, 2025, 10:23 a.m.
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-8 HDDS bearish on the EE overnight which put a bit of pressure on NG for a short while but couldn't keep it from going higher, with new highs for the week right now, after the selling exhaustion, gap and crap to start the week. Gap lower that was filled and now we're higher.

By metmike - Jan. 23, 2025, 10:29 a.m.
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Bearish number?  -223 Bcf.

If you base it on the immediate spike down. 

The big deal recently is that the massive surplus has been completely wiped out with the sustained cold this Winter! The blue line on the graph below, that has often been completely ABOVE the 5 year range and at record highs for over a year(from last years mild Winter)  is now almost down to the average. WOW!

Below: This represents  a net decrease of 223 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 57 Bcf less than last year at this time and 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf.


  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 17, 2025   |  Released: January 23, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 30, 2025 

                                                                                                                  

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/17/24)
5-year average
(2020-24) 
Region01/17/2501/10/25net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East613  669  -56  -56   674  -9.1  664  -7.7  
Midwest744  808  -64  -64   812  -8.4  790  -5.8  
Mountain229  240  -11  -11   198  15.7  163  40.5  
Pacific269  283  -14  -14   236  14.0  217  24.0  
South Central1,037  1,114  -77  -77   1,029  0.8  1,037  0.0  
   Salt297  326  -29  -29   287  3.5  303  -2.0  
   Nonsalt739  788  -49  -49   742  -0.4  735  0.5  
Total2,892  3,115  -223  -223   2,949  -1.9  2,871  0.7  
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,892 Bcf as of Friday, January 17, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 223 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 57 Bcf less than last year at this time and 21 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,871 Bcf. At 2,892 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

+++++++++++

The number was right at the bottom of guesses.

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/

By metmike - Jan. 24, 2025, 7:10 p.m.
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The low skill week 3 & 4 forecast looks exactly like the La Nina analog!

I am COLDER than this because of the persistent cross polar flow dumping bitter cold into most of Canada and some of that will cross into the US. More than the map below.

I have pretty high confidence that next weeks extended forecasts will be COLDER than this weeks.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/


                                    


By metmike - Jan. 26, 2025, 12:23 p.m.
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HUGE disagreement by models in how much cold returns late in week 2. The European model is the coldest.

Their WILL be cross polar flow with the Siberian express continuing to dump frigid air from Siberia into much of Canada. How much continues south into the US is where most of the disagreement is.

The ng markets sharp turn around on Friday, to make new highs for the week suggested it agreed with my higher confidence COLDER outlook. The NWS yesterday, updated their 8-14 day to add a ton of cold, seen below.

Right now, I'm actually much  LESS convinced of my COLDER than the guidance view late last week and could quickly change to much milder here.  Model runs early this week will determine that for me. 



0z European Ensemble model below. HDDs on the left. Increasingly mild, then quickly turning much colder again but the purple, last run in purple is not AS cold at the end of the period as the prior 12z run.

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2025, 4:26 p.m.
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The stellar performing, European Ensemble has gone from, by far the coldest the last few days, to suddenly one of the warmest. MUCH more upper level ridging in the Southeast/South vs 2 days ago. Less troughing in the North.

1a. Friday's 12z run for 500 mb

b. 850 temps

2. Sunday's 12z run for 500 mb.

b. 850 temps. 

++++++++++++++++++++++

Latest 12z run below:

By metmike - Jan. 26, 2025, 6:12 p.m.
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NG opened sharply lower, in line with the milder outlook described above, earlier today.

The front month, February is expiring, which always injects more volatility during the last few days of the front months trading.

looks like a small gap lower on the daily bar that barely got filled that gets extremely low weighting for gaps and gap and crap selling exhaustions.
If I was forced to make an interpretation for trading, it would be that the milder changes on weather maps today are causing heavy pressure on the market that will likely continue if the overnight models continue milder.

if, if, if.

looks like the last trading day for NGG is Wednesday. Volume for march-6500 is already almost 3 times the feb-2500 with less than 1 hour of trading for this new trading session On Sunday evening

By metmike - Jan. 27, 2025, 9:27 a.m.
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1. Milder outlook with an upper level ridge continued overnight, so NG continued down as expected. This was the last 0z European model HDDS in purple. Previous solution 12 hours earlier in tan. Much milder at the end, which is why this solution was -6 HDDS vs the previous one.

2. GEFS 6z map at 500 mb. Look at the tenacious cross polar flow in Northwest Canada(numerous streamlines, which define upper level air flow-which is parallel to them). This will continue to dump in air from Siberia into Canada so that cold fronts coming from Canada into the US will be loaded with frigid air coming from the highest latitudes.


By metmike - Jan. 27, 2025, 10:36 p.m.
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Should be another robust drawdown on Thursday with widespread cold across the entire country last week.

This should take us BELOW the 5 year average for the first time in a long while.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

By WxFollower - Jan. 27, 2025, 10:43 p.m.
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Hey Mike,

 I assume shutins will be large and thus reduce supply and add to the net draw to be reported. Could this possibly be a record high net draw?

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2025, 1:42 a.m.
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It should be a whopper Larry!

I don’t ever remember the entire country, as in almost every county of every state being below average like this.

By metmike - Jan. 28, 2025, 12:30 p.m.
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Incredible spread for the AO today!! From +3 to -3.

Pretty big for the PNA too.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

The tenacious cross polar flow continues!

Western Canada WILL be frigid. Any cold fronts/air masses entering the US from that location will have a source region from Siberia because of the cross polar flow. 

However, the building positive anomaly in the East will provide increasing resistance/moderation to cold air as it crosses the country. 

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2025, 11:15 a.m.
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Great call on the EIA number, Larry.

-321 Bcf!  Is that  a record number? We are now BELOW the 5 year average in storage for the first time in almost 2 years(by 111 Bcf). Look at the blue line on graph below! WOW!

We are in the back half of Winter with no chance to run out, which usually means strong negative seasonals for the next ~2 months but the weather is looking to potentially turn much colder again at the end of 2 weeks(after being very mild before then)

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 24, 2025   |  Released: January 30, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: February 6, 2025 

                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(01/24/24)
5-year average
(2020-24) 
Region01/24/2501/17/25net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East552  613  -61  -61   620  -11.0  612  -9.8  
Midwest661  744  -83  -83   744  -11.2  732  -9.7  
Mountain212  229  -17  -17   188  12.8  154  37.7  
Pacific246  269  -23  -23   224  9.8  210  17.1  
South Central901  1,037  -136  -136   939  -4.0  975  -7.6  
   Salt229  297  -68  -68   254  -9.8  280  -18.2  
   Nonsalt672  739  -67  -67   686  -2.0  695  -3.3  
Total2,571  2,892  -321  -321   2,715  -5.3  2,682  -4.1  
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,571 Bcf as of Friday, January 24, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 321 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 144 Bcf less than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,682 Bcf. At 2,571 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2025, 11:59 a.m.
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Story of the Day

          Storage Draw, Within Expectations, Keeping Natural Gas Futures on Downward Trajectory       

   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Thursday reported a massive 321 Bcf withdrawal of natural gas from storage for the frigid week ending Jan. 24. The print was above median expectations and at the high end of a range of outlooks.                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jodi Shafto                                                                                     


By WxFollower - Jan. 30, 2025, 12:25 p.m.
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Thanks, Mike. I’d love to know what the Fri-Thu US pop weighted HDDs were. I no longer can find those.

 Also, have you seen any estimates of shutins?

 I don’t know if this is a record high draw. I vaguely recall there has been one other over 300 in the not too distant past. I used to be able to analyze the weekly EIAs pretty quickly, but I’ve lost that ability in recent years.

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2025, 1:01 p.m.
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I just checked and this is the 3rd largest drawdown In history.

more when back in the office later today.

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2025, 7:40 p.m.
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-359 Bcf below is the record!

Cold Snap Leads To Biggest U.S. Natural Gas Draw Ever

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 11, 2018,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Cold-Snap-Leads-To-Biggest-US-Natural-Gas-Draw-Ever.html

By WxFollower - Jan. 30, 2025, 9:10 p.m.
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Mike posted:

-359 Bcf below is the record!

Cold Snap Leads To Biggest U.S. Natural Gas Draw Ever

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 11, 2018,

——————————-

Hey Mike,

 Not coincidentally, that early Jan cold snap like this one was accompanied by an historic Deep SE winter storm (actually the last one to occur).

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2025, 12:48 p.m.
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many tens of millions of people live in the south that set the thermostats higher than other locations, farther north that are  more tolerant of cold.

i would bet that population weighted  HDDS in the South use more NG than in the North.

what do you think, Larry from Georgia?

By WxFollower - Jan. 31, 2025, 1:36 p.m.
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Mike said:

“many tens of millions of people live in the south that set the thermostats higher than other locations, farther north that are  more tolerant of cold.

i would bet that population weighted  HDDS in the South use more NG than in the North.

what do you think, Larry from Georgia?”

————————

Hey Mike,

 I agree due to a combo of setting thermostat higher and homes not as efficient at keeping in the heat (largely due to windows/doors).

https://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/article/the-strange-geography-of-thermostat-settings

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2025, 1:53 p.m.
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Great graphics, stats, Larry!

By metmike - Feb. 2, 2025, 3:05 p.m.
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Turning sharply colder again in week 2 but with tremendous uncertainty.

I remain strongly on the colder/bullish side!

1.Last 4 runs of the GEFS, purple is the last 12z run and coldest. 

2. The EE on the other hand was MILDER with its last run by -10 HDDs. ....but its 0z run was SUPER cold.

Regardless, week 2 is colder than Friday, so we probably open higher tonight. 




The huge deal is the -AO crashing lower, which suggests cold air from high latitudes being flushed into the middle latitudes. 

NAO becomes much less positive, approaching 0. Ridge in the East is weakening!!

PNA drops to near 0 which might provide some resistance to how far south the Arctic air can penetrate. +PNA helps with a ridge/west, trough east, cold configuration in the US. 

By metmike - Feb. 2, 2025, 6:10 p.m.
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What's going on with the energy markets/ICE???

They normally open at 5pm but didn't open. I had an order in and was thinking it would get get filled based on the bid/offer but we didn't open.

The next holiday is Presidents Day in 2 weeks. What gives? 

https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures/IFUS_Trading_Hours_Holiday_Calendar.pdf

++++++++++

Addition: I had to reload the Firetip trading program on my computer. That was the issue.

We opened with a massive gap higher, as expected from the much colder forecast. My buy order would not have been filled anyway.

This is likely an upside break away gap, after testing $3 last week.

By metmike - Feb. 3, 2025, 4 p.m.
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12z GEFS was +16 HDDS but the EE was -7 HDDs.

 crazy amount of uncertainty

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2025, 7:01 a.m.
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Models overnight less bullish with the position of the southward dislaced polar vortex.

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2025, 1:49 p.m.
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This last 12z GEFS was a whopping +16 HDDs higher than the previous 6z run. This gave us a big spike higher in price that was still unable to get close to unch vs Mondays close, now giving back a big portion of the gains. NOT A GOOD BULLISH REACTION!

It's February and well over half of Winter is over. Seasonals are extremely bearish, except in years when storage is precariously low. Speculators that want to be long the first half of Winter on extreme cold have thinned out at this time of year. 

We can still go higher from here for sure, however with few exceptions, the later in the heating season it is, the harder it is to generate and maintain buying on extreme cold. This NEGATIVE impact usually starts in late January and lasts into mid March, depending on the individual years dynamics.

If the polar vortex comes all the way into the United States, it will be plenty enough to offset this seasonal/historical pattern/analog and with storage whittled down to below the 5 year average, that would be plenty for more upside.   Each year is different. If forecasts between now and the end of the week are less cold, the chance of the price dropping is high. 

Purple on the left was the last 12z run. Blue was from 3 runs ago, and the last in a bunch of cold runs that started over the weekend. Red and orange were the 2 much LESS cold runs overnight(causing the price to drop almost $2,000/contract from Mondays close. They are all spaced 6 hours apart.


The HDDs for the European Ensemble model are not out yet on TrueWeather but I can tell by looking at  the WeatherBell maps, which come out way earlier than the 12z EE solution, that this solution will have LESS HDDs than the previous 0z run. The EE maps going out 2 weeks only come out every 12 hours.

The main reason is the much stronger upper level ridge in the South/Southeast in week 2 on this last 12z EE run. This is the reason for the market to give back some of the colder 12z GEFS inspired gains.

UPDATE: The last 12z EE was in fact -4 HDDs.

NG 1/12/2025+
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By metmike - Feb. 5, 2025, 2:22 p.m.
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Another robust drawdown on tomorrows EIA at 9:30am. The small mild place vs average has few people living there. The coldest place vs average sets their thermostats up pretty high for comfort.

Will it take us BELOW the 5 year range?

+++++++++++

The last 12z run of the European Ensemble model was mind boggling colder than the previous run. I'll guess close to +20 HDDs!

NG 1/12/2025+
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By metmike - Feb. 6, 2025, 10:39 a.m.
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-174 Bcf!

The last huge drawdown of this magnitude for the Winter of 2024/25. but still some big ones coming up again by lower February standards.

We are BELOW the blue line on the graph below by the greatest amount since (using memory) the early Fall of 2022.

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending January 31, 2025   |  Released: February 6, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: February 13, 2025 

                                                         Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN  Historical ComparisonsStocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf) Year ago
(01/31/24)5-year average
(2020-24) Region01/31/2501/24/25net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% changeEast507  552  -45  -45   579  -12.4  562  -9.8  Midwest605  661  -56  -56   700  -13.6  677  -10.6  Mountain200  212  -12  -12   184  8.7  146  37.0  Pacific230  246  -16  -16   227  1.3  203  13.3  South Central854  901  -47  -47   917  -6.9  920  -7.2     Salt217  229  -12  -12   254  -14.6  263  -17.5     Nonsalt638  672  -34  -34   663  -3.8  657  -2.9  Total2,397  2,571  -174  -174   2,605  -8.0  2,508  -4.4  Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,397 Bcf as of Friday, January 31, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 174 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 208 Bcf less than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,508 Bcf. At 2,397 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2025, 4:55 p.m.
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HIGHER open tonight for natural gas.  The last 12z European model, on the left, in purple was a whopping +15.7 HDDs vs the previous oz run, 12 hours earlier.

This is +79 HDDs compared to average for the 2 week period. It means some unusually big drawdawns for the late Feb EIA reporting periods, especially compared to last Winters record mild temps. This WILL take us below the 5 year storage range for the first time since late Summer 2022?(just based on my memory).


This next EIA report, released at 9:30 am on Thursday is going to be a very wimpy number! Could the SouthCentral region see a very small injection??? Probably just a tiny withdrawal. What do you think, Larry?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

By metmike - Feb. 9, 2025, 6:16 p.m.
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With Winter HDDs getting close to 2/3rds behind us, it's tough in February to generate sustained buying by large specs that trade weather. 

This same amount of additional cold vs average in December or early January would have caused a huge upside breakaway gap with no looking behind. In fact........it did!

That pattern is expected. The market sees the end of Winter in February and no amount of cold is possible that was possible earlier in the Winter. This is what drives many of the big weather traders. 

The amount of cold coming up is very significant and still capable of pushing us higher but I'm just providing the underlying reality which frequently dampens out the greatest upside potential.  Every year is different though!

We had a VERY CONTRA seasonal move higher from sustained cold in January, that COULD HAVE delayed the reaction lower after that top??? This weeks EIA is going to be very bearish. That counts.


https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart


+++++++++++++

Charts below:

1. 1 week

2. 1 month

3. 1 year

4. 10 years

5. 35 years

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas


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