Severe weather, May 21, 2024 onward
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Started by metmike - May 21, 2024, 3:11 p.m.

Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                      

There are 4 key factors causing this severe weather: See maps below.

1. Strong upper level jet stream/trough.

2. Vorticity/spin in the atmosphere

3. Very warm/humid air in the lower levels

4. Surface cold front.......see 4 maps below

                                                     250 mb winds in knots/hour

                          500 mb vorticity/spin
                          


            National Wind Chill / Heat Index

   


https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/


1. Weather map now.

2. In 24 hours and

3. In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706


Excessive rain threat.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  Day 3 outlook

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

              


Comments
By metmike - May 21, 2024, 3:13 p.m.
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See all the comprehensive weather here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

By metmike - May 21, 2024, 3:14 p.m.
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Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    


New radar product below          

 https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NC45OCwzNy4wMl0sImxvY2F0aW9uIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tIjo0fSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site

+++++++++++++++++++++++

                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains
      https://www.eldoradoweather.com/radar/national-doppler-radar-full-resolution.htmlConus Radar Very High Resolution

By metmike - May 21, 2024, 3:16 p.m.
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Tracking the latest radar with constantly updated surface observations here:

Current temperatures:

http://wxmaps.org/


 National Wind Chill / Heat Index


   


https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/


                  

                

Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.

UPPER MIDWEST

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#






https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#



LOWER MIDWEST

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#



  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#                     


SOUTHCENTRAL  

      https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#

 


SOUTHEAST

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18#


                                    


            

                

By metmike - May 21, 2024, 3:27 p.m.
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NWS: Twin Cities, MN

https://www.weather.gov/mpx/

                        

                      Severe Thunderstorms Across Portions of the Midwest; Hazardous Heat in Southern Texas            

                A Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is expected across the Midwest today, especially portions of Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Illinois. Damaging winds, large hail and a few strong tornadoes are expected. A dangerous early season heat wave will continue this week and expand from south Texas through portions of the central Gulf Coast by this weekend.                Read More >           

    

Click a location below for detailed forecast.    

    

    

                                                                                                     

                Graphical Weather DepictionWeather Story            

              

                Local Radar Image

+++++++++++++++++++++++

NWS Forecast Office Des Moines, IA

    https://www.weather.gov/dmx/

                                                                                                               

                                                                   

                Local Radar Image

+++++++++++++++++++

NWS Forecast Office Kansas City, MO                                                                                 https://www.weather.gov/eax/

    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           



                                                                    

                Local Radar Image

++++++++++++++++++

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK

      https://www.weather.gov/tsa/      

   

    

    

                Tulsa Radar

Tulsa Radar            

                                                

                    

                Fort Smith Radar

Fort Smith radar

By mcfarm - May 21, 2024, 6:52 p.m.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3S6mdEMTpM    here is what Snodgrass has to say...and its mostly bad news for the Midwest.  He does mention around minute 23 a chance for a pattern change in day 8 or so. and that 70 done thing yesterday is shrinking no matter what big gov came out with.

By 12345 - May 21, 2024, 7:31 p.m.
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IOWA WIND FARM  27 SECONDS

By metmike - May 22, 2024, 12:01 a.m.
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Thanks, mcfarm and jean!

Storm threat zone has moved east:

NWS Forecast Office St. Louis, MO

        https://www.weather.gov/lsx/


    

    

    


Weather Story


                    

                            

                    

                Local Radar Image


Central Illinois

NWS Forecast Office Lincoln, IL  

        https://www.weather.gov/ilx/     

Click a location below for detailed forecast.

    

    

    Weather Story



                    

                                Local Radar Image


NWS Forecast Office Paducah, KY 

     https://www.weather.gov/pah/

   Click a location below for detailed forecast.  


                                                        

Weather Story



                    

                                                

                Local Radar Image                                               

                ++++++

NWS Forecast Office Indianapolis, IN  

     https://www.weather.gov/ind/

           

        Wednesday's Severe Weather Threat      

        Another round of severe weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for Central and Southern Indiana. All hazards are on the table with damaging winds being the greatest threat. Continue checking back for updates at weather.gov/ind. #inwx       

Click a location below for detailed forecast.

    

    

                              

Weather Story



                                                                    

                Local Radar Image


                NWS Forecast Office, Northern Indiana

https://www.weather.gov/iwx/


     

       

                    

                                                

                Local Radar Image

                

NWS Forecast Office Wilmington, OH(Cincinnati)     

    https://www.weather.gov/iln/

    

    


Weather Story

Local Radar

Satellite

By metmike - May 22, 2024, 2:05 a.m.
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By metmike - May 22, 2024, 1:45 p.m.
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5-22-22: Areas farther south:

Shreveport, LA

https://www.weather.gov/shv/

                                      

    

There's a Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) and a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across most of the Four State Region later today, this evening and into the overnight hours tonight. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, followed by an isolated tornado threat. 

             

                                                                                                                                                                           

                Regional RadarRegional Radar            

                    

                Shreveport RadarShreveport Radar            

                    

                Weather MapWeather Map                                                     


NWS Forecast Office Little Rock, AR       

   https://www.weather.gov/lzk/

        

    

                     

+++++++++++++++++

NWS Forecast Office Memphis, TN        

         https://www.weather.gov/meg/                                   

        

    

    L             

                Local Radar ImageLocal Radar            

                       


NWS Forecast Office Nashville, TN       

      https://www.weather.gov/ohx//

                                      

    

Severe storms will be possible throughout the day today. All storm modes. Remain weather aware and have ways to receive warnings (and ways that will wake you up!)

  

    

    


                NWS Nashville (KOHX) Radar LoopNWS Nashville (KOHX) Radar Loop            

                                                       

                Regional Satellite

++++++++++++++++

NWS Forecast Office Huntsville, AL

        https://www.weather.gov/hun/

                                              

    

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night (after midnight) into early Thursday morning. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are the main hazards. Flash flooding may also become a risk due to locally excessive rainfall.

    

    

    

                                             

                Local Radar

+++++++++++

National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA-"Larry Land"

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/

        

    

    

UPDATE: Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight into early Thursday morning. The dark green indicates a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather while far west- central Georgia is under a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts of at least 60 mph will be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

    

    

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

                KFFCRadar