KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, August 29, 2023  

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)

9:00 AM ET. 2^nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.0%)

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.7%)

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous -0.5%)

10:00 AM ET. July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.0)

                       Expectation Idx (previous 88.3)

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 160)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.4M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)

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The Dow closed higher on Monday as investors continued to sift through Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech on Friday and braced for key inflation and jobs data due to be released on Thursday and Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extend the decline off August's high, the July 10^th low crossing at 33,705.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,884.79 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,664.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,884.79. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26. Second support is the July 10^th low crossing at 33,705.68. 

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's losses. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,321.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the June 8^th low crossing at 14,125.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,321.67. Second resistance is the July 19^th high crossing at 16,062.75. First support is the June 8^th low crossing at 14,125.00. Second support is 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 14,117.27.  

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's losses. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4486.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4486.63. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4254.86.      

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September T-bonds closed up 10/32's at 120-02. 

September T-bonds closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-17. Second resistance is the August 10^th high crossing at 123-22. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 117-18. Second support is the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26.

September T-notes closed up 75-pts. at 109.215.

September T-notes closed higher on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.048 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.048. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.125. First support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart  crossing at 104.113.

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October crude oil closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.77 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August high, the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $81.75. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $84.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.63. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $74.36.  

October heating oil posted an inside day with a sharply lower close on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0815 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.5689 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.2786. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.5689. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0815. Second support is the August 17^th low crossing at 2.9822.    

October unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Monday ending a three-day rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 2.7209 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off August's high, the August 3^rd low crossing at 2.4847 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August high crossing at 2.7209. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First support is the August 3^rd low crossing at 2.4847. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4420.  

October Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.752 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 1^st low crossing at 2.377 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.752. Second resistance is the August 9^th high crossing at 3.096. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.529. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.377. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, March's high crossing at 105.000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.921 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 104.385. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 105.000. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.921. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.055.       

The September Euro closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 1.07025 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09284 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09284. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.10067. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.07765. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025. 

The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2791 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2791. Second resistance is the July 27^th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.2550. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2507.    

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates above support marked by the March-June uptrend line. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 30^th low crossing at 1.11790 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.14402 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.14402. Second resistance is the July 18^th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.12910. Second support is the June 30^th low crossing at 1.11790. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.26. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.02.   

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14^th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069466 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069466. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070612. First support is today's low crossing at 0.068485. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.  

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December gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1947.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1947.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1970.90. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $1913.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30. 

September silver closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, the July 31^st high crossing at 24.985 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.360 would signal a likely end to the rally off last-Tuesday's low. First resistance is the July 31^st high crossing at 24.985. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 25.475. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.715. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.360. 

September copper closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8121 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8121. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.7301. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.6270.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed up $0.08 1/4-cents at $4.96 1/4. 

December corn closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4. First support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 1/2.  

December wheat closed down $0.04 3/4-cents at $6.17.  

December wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.84 1/4. First support is August's low crossing at $6.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.   

December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.14 3/4-cents at $7.49 3/4.

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.36 is the next downside target. Closes below May's low crossing at $7.36 would mark a downside breakout of the December-August trading range. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.67 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.67 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.14 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $7.36. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $7.29 1/2.   

December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.10 1/2-cents crossing at $7.91 1/2.

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.21 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $8.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.21 3/4. First support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.85 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2.     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed up $0.18-cents at $14.05 3/4.

November soybeans gapped up and closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $14.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.36 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $14.09 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.36 3/4. Second support is the August 8^th low crossing at $12.82 1/4.

December soybean meal closed up $3.80 at $4180.80. 

December soybean meal closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $424.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $395.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $421.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support the 50-day moving average crossing at $399.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $395.50.     

December soybean oil closed up 9 pts. at 63.45. 

December soybean oil closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, last-October's high crossing at 66.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 65.39. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 66.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.41. Second support is August's low crossing at 57.86.

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October hogs closed up $1.93 at $81.75. 

October hogs closed higher on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $83.13 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If October renews the decline off August's high, the June 6^th low crossing at $74.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $83.13. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. First support is the June 30^th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8^th low crossing at $74.03.     

October cattle closed up $0.35 at $181.53. 

October cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off the August 18^th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the August 18^th low, August's high crossing at $183.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 18^th low crossing at $177.62 renew the decline off July's high. First resistance is August's high crossing at $183.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. First support is the July 6^th low crossing at $176.20. Second support is the June 21^st low crossing at $171.83. 

October Feeder cattle closed up $2.90 at $256.88. 

October Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Monday as it marked an upside breakout of  the July-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 6^th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is today's high crossing at $257.93. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the August 18^th low crossing at $248.05. Second support is the July 6^th low crossing at $246.03.   

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

December coffee posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the January low crossing at $14.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.96. First support is the August 18^th low crossing at $14.72. Second support is the January low crossing at $14.49. 

December cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 17^th high crossing at 35.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 32.63 is the next downside target.            

October sugar closed higher for the fourth-day in a row on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. 

December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off the August 17^th low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 88.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 88.39. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 88.83. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.17.