KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 10, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 230K; previous 227K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1700000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)
8:30 AM ET. July CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +3.3%; previous +3.0%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +4.8%; previous +4.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3001B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +14B)
2:00 PM ET. July Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 11, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 71.7; previous 72.6)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 69.4)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 77.5)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 35,007.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off July's low, the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 35,679.13. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 35,007.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,412.10.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,632.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the July 10th low crossing at 14,853.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53.
The September S&P 500 closed lower lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4561.96 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4464.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4464.24. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.
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September T-bonds closed up 10/32's at 122-24.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-18. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-31. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 119-25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21.
September T-notes closed down 15-pts. at 111.115.
September T-notes posted an inside day with a slightly lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.240 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.240. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.134. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.240. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.20.
September heating oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2700 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 2.9374 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.2172. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2700. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.9374. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8538.
September unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7131 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.9326. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.7131. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5615.
September Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.593 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.018. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 103.275 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 101.550 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 103.275. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 101.550. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.106. Third support is the July 27th low crossing at 100.320.
The September Euro posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10989 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10989. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at $1.11770. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1.09425. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.08715.
The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2872 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2773. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2872. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.2683. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13817 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15857 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15857. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.14130. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13817.
The September Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.53 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.40. First support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.48. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 74.01.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 0.069755 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071600 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071600. Second resistance is the July 28th high crossing at 0.073015. First support is today's low crossing at 0.069965. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extended the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $1939.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1992.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1992.00. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $2028.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $2034.70. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1954.50. Second support is June's low crossing at $1919.60.
September silver closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 22.340 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.918 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.918. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.412. First support is today's low crossing at 22.680. Second support is June's low crossing at 22.340.
September copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June 29th low crossing at 3.6830 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8702 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8702. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is the June 29th low crossing at 3.6830. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.04 1/2-cents at $4.94 1/4.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past four-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/2. First support is July's low crossing at $4.81. Second support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2.
September wheat closed down $0.21 1/4-cents at $6.35.
September wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $6.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $7.77 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.26 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $6.22.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09-cents at $7.61 1/2.
September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.26 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.20 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.48 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.33.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.11-cents crossing at $8.19 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.72. First support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4. Second support is the June 14th low crossing at $8.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.02 1/2-cents at $13.08 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it bounces off the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.82 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off July's high, the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.67. First support is the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.46 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $3.20 at $390.80.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $389.70 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $407.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $407.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $389.70. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at $384.70.
December soybean oil closed up 58 pts. at 60.43.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.44. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 57.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.24.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $2.78 at $81.80.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $80.74 is the next downside target. If October renew the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $80.74. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58.
October cattle closed up $0.80 at $181.70.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.28 is the next downside target. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.28. Second support is July's low crossing at $176.20.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.00 at $252.23.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the July-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $247.54. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee posted a quiet inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.73. Second resistance is May's low crossing at $17.32. First support is July's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.04 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.83 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 7th low crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 26.19 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.
Thanks, tallpine!
USDA report out Friday!
heat builds in week 2.
not sure on rains.