KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 3, 2023
7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -49%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity and Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +2.3%; previous -2.7%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.5%; previous +6.3%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 227K; previous 221K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -7K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1690000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -59K)
9:45 AM ET. July US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 52.4; previous 54.4)
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 53.3; previous 53.9)
Business Activity Idx (previous 59.2)
Prices Idx (previous 54.1)
Employment Idx (previous 53.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 55.5)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +2.2%; previous +0.3%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2987B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +16B)
11:00 AM ET. July Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.0)
12:00 PM ET. July Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 4, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +200K; previous +209K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.58)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.12)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.36%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.2%; previous +4.35%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +60K)
Private Payroll (previous +149K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.6%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
Monday, August 7, 2023
10:00 AM ET. July Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 114.31)
ETI, Y/Y%
3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +7.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets thestage a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,168.80 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,168.80. Second support is July's low crossing at 15,063.25.
The September S&P 500 was was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4439.40 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4634.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4639.07. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4439.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 4411.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117-19 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-02 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-02. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-10. First support is the overnight low crossing at 120-22. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117-19 is the next downside target.
September T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 110.050 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.247 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.247. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.200. First support is July's low crossing at 110.050. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Septembercrude oil was slightly high in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $77.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off the June 28th low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $84.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $82.43. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $84.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.34. Second support is the July 17th low crossing at $73.78.
September heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7431 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.0874. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.1313. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.8973. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7431.
September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7095 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.9257. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chartcrossing at $3.0221. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.7095. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5286.
September natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 25th high, June's low crossing at 2.249 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.626 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. From a broad perspective, September natural gas remains locked in a long-term trading range that began in April. Closes below June's low crossing at 2.249 or above June's high crossing at 20911 are needed to mark a breakout of this extended trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the June 26th high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $103.275 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.958 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's highcrossing at $103.275. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $104.205. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.079. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.519.
The September Euro was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.11091 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.10461. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.11091. First support is July's low crossing at 1.08715. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2901 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2821. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2901. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2658. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13589 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15779 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15779. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.13589. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extended the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $74.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.71. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $76.44. First support is July's low crossing at $74.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $74.48.
The September Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, June's low crossing at 0.069755 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.071798 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.07315. Second resistance is the July 14th high crossing at 0.073585. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.069970. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Precious Metals: October gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold bur remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 6th low crossing at $1927.60 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $1991.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $2008.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $2015.80. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $1927.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $1919.60.
September silver was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at $22.720 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.496 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.496. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $25.475. First support is July's low crossing at $22.720. Second support is June's low crossing at $22.340.
September copper was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8091 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off the June 29th low, April's high crossing at 4.1825 is the next upside target. First resistance Tuesday's high crossing at 4.0240. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 4.1825. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8091. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.7225.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
Grains: December corn was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, July's low crossing at $4.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.22. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at $4.96 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.81.
September wheat was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the July 18th low crossing at $6.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.81. First support is July's low crossing at $6.22. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.
September Kansas City wheat was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.46 3/4 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.24 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.36 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.74 1/4. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.47 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.86 1/4 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.79. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.86 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.47 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.76 3/4 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $13.79. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $13.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $13.00.
December soybean meal was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the July 7th low crossing at $384.70 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at $392.40 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $392.40. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $406.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $391.40. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at $384.70.
December soybean oil was lower in overnight trading and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.13 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 68.81. First support is the July 7th low crossing at 58.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.25.
Thank you, tallpine!
Weather hasn't changed. Still bearish. Beans having some big gyrations up and down and up not related to weather.
Crude up massively is a factor.
More later.
This was the just out Canadian model ensemble average and the individual members below that. Much of the same as recent.
However, there's enough disagreement so that this solution could change in the future if one of the more extreme camps has the right idea. For now, the average at the top is the best guidance/prediction.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 19, 2023 12 UTC
