July 24: CBOT Dec #corn jumps 32 cents/bu (6%), a record daily rise for the Dec23 contract. Earlier this month I mentioned how Nov #soybeans were trading at nearly identical prices as the last two years. Now it seems as if Dec corn also converged very close to this date.
It's definitely not 2012, but it's also not 2013 (at least not at the moment). Still, this might be the favorite saga of 2023:
Now, checking on Nov #soybeans, you can see the mid-month conversion among the three years. But 2023 has been running away. New yearly high of $14.35 on Monday, Nov23's highest since May 2022. New-crop beans are up a whopping 26% from the May 31 low (up nearly $3/bu).
Funds covered shorts in CBOT #corn but also cut gross longs through July 18 - no plans to turn bullish. After Thur/Fri trade, it seemed funds were possibly escaping this rally without being forced out of their net short (as in June). But Monday's trade makes things interesting.
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You could pose the same question for CBOT #wheat. What's the status of money managers since last Tuesday, when their net short was basically unchanged from late June? Most-active wheat was up the 60-cent limit Monday, closing at the highest levels in 5 months.
metmike: FROM LAST WEEK. Wheat spiking higher because of Ukraine news is pulling corn up here!
The new-crop bean-corn ratio came way off recent highs this week with the steep rally in Dec #corn, finishing at 2.57 Thursday. But 2016 shows us how significant an advantage Nov #soybeans could have over corn at this time of year, if needed.
Can you keep up with high frequency traders? vs. What's going on? A petition has been filed by McVean Trading to change the release time of one of the most important reports in the grain industry, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, or simply WASDE What's the problem? According to the petition, high frequency traders are able to receive and take advantage of the report faster than human traders. The petition states that this advantage is "criminally unfair" as humans cannot process and analyze the "immense quantity of market-moving data that is released in these reports" What is the proposed solution? Currently the WASDE report is released at 11:00 AM CST when agricultural markets are fully open. The petition proposes to move the report release to 8:00 AM CST when markets are closed for a short break, thus allowing participants (Humans and Machines) to have adequate time to analyze the immense amount of data contained in these reports. This would allow for a level playing field between all participant A link to the petition is available in the next tweet
CBOT November #soybeans have climbed 24% so far in June and July. The last three years with a bigger run over this same period (June 1 - July 25) were: 2012: +27% 1974: +50% 1973: +25%
The last 30 days in #Canada's Prairies have been dry, except for in portions of Alberta. Luckily, temperatures have been a bit cooler in the eastern 2/3rds. For reference, here's where Canada grows #wheat and #canola (sorry, USDA is calling it rapeseed):
Here's the temperature anomaly map for roughly the last 30 days:
