KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, June 27, 2023
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.9%)
9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -0.8%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.1%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. June Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -15)
Shipments Idx (previous -13)
10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 102.3)
Expectation Idx (previous 71.5)
Present Situation Idx (previous 148.6)
10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 683K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +4.1%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.6)
1:00 PM ET. May Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.3M)
Wednesday, June 28, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 209.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 165.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 425.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Annual U.S. International Investment Position
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Economic Indicators Report
10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 463.293M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.831M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 221.402M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.479M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 114.288M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.434M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.925M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.517M)
Thursday, June 29, 2023
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q%
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.2%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q%
Real Final Sales, Q/Q%
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex
Food/Energy, Q/Q%
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 264K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1759000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 78.9)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -20.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2729B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +95B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, June 30, 2023
8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
9:45 AM ET. June Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 40.4)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 59.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 55.4)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.2%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.1%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 64.9)
3:00 PM ET. May Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,612.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews the rally off May's low, the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 34,588.68. Second resistance is the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,612.86. Second support is the June 6th low crossing at 33,399.69.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,889.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 15,475.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,889.45. Second support is June's low crossing at 14,420.00.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4359.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4493.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4359.52. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at 4305.75.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 7/32's at 128-04.
September T-bonds closed higher on Monday as it extends June's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-00. Second resistance is the May 11th high crossing at 132-13. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19.
September T-notes closed up 55-pts. at 113.080.
September T-notes closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 13th high crossing at 114.000 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 13th high crossing at 114.000. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 75% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 112.190. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil closed higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at $66.96 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $63.90. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $72.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $75.70. First support is the June 12thlow crossing at $66.96. Second support is May's low crossing at $64.41.
August heating oil closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 2.2878 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 24th high crossing at 2.5349. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $2.2876. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $2.2301.
August unleaded gas closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 2.3901 would open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 2.3394. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.4862 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance June's high crossing at 2.5905. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6394. First support is the June 12th low crossing at 2.3901. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.3394.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.499 is the next downside target.First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.828. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.499. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.244.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.792 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 100.340 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.792. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 101.485. Second support is May's low crossing at 100.340.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08662 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.11710. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10615. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.11710. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08662. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.07025.
The September British Pound posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2544 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.2874. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2600. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2544.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.12029 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10197 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.14920 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.13410. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.14920. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.12029. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.10700. Third support is the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.010197.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 76.22. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.72. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.09.
The September Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072241 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072241. Second resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 0.073430. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.070420. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1963.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1963.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1999.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1919.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.
July silver closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.368 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.563. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,368. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 22.140. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708.
September copper closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8018 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 4.0100 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8018. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
September Corn closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $5.84.
September corn closed fractionally lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023-decline crossing at $6.47 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the December 26th high crossing at $6.31 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $6.47 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.53 1/4.
September wheat closed down $0.08 1/4-cents at $7.38 1/4.
September wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 crossing at $7.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 crossing at $7.95 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/4.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.06 1/2-cents at $8.68 1/4.
September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the May 31st low, May's high crossing at $9.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.16.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01 1/4-cents crossing at $8.72 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September the rally off the May 31st low, April's high crossing at $9.10 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.94 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $9.10 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.48 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.32.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.13-cents at $13.23.
November soybeans posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday due to disappointing weekend rains that fell across the Midwest this past weekend. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.01 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at $14.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $13.78. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $14.02. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.01 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.45.
August soybean meal closed up $2.10 at $409.50.
August soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $399.00 is the next downside target. If August renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at $456.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $438.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $456.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $405.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $399.00.
August soybean oil closed up 143-pts. at 58.00.
August soybean oil closed higher for the third day in a row on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 61.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 59.39. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 61.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.82. Second support is May's low crossing at 44.68.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.38 at $90.05.
August hogs closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $95.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $95.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $100.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $90.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.69.
August cattle closed down $0.08 at $170.70.
August cattle closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $166.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 14th high crossing at $174.40 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the June 14th high crossing at $174.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $178.10. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $168.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $166.03.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.25 at $233.70.
August Feeder cattle closed slightly lower on Monday leaving a two-day island bottom on the daily chart. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $221.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $236.98. Second resistance is the June 14th high crossing at $241.90. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $226.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $221.15.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed slightly lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $18.30. First support is today's low crossing at $16.27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.88.
September cocoa closed higher on Monday and is poised to renew this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 34.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed sharply lower for the third-day in a row on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the June 6th low crossing at 24.01 marks a downside breakout of the April-June trading range while opening the door for a larger degree decline into July. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Monday and spiked below the bottom of the March-June trading range crossing at 77.56. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the March 24th low crossing at 77.56 would open the door for a possible test of the November 28th -2022 low crossing at 74.25. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.58 would signal that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Latest analysis here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96705/
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Crop conditions+more 6-26-23
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2523.txt
Corn -5%
Beans -3%
Spring wheat -1%
Cotton +2%
This is why I found it a bit odd that new crop, December corn was the weakest link today.
However, this was likely dialed in by the spike higher earlier this month and the weather models keep promising an increase in rains, which were the most yet on the 12z runs.
This was the last 12z GEFS. The EE matches up with this and actually has MORE rain in IA than the previously wetter GEFS.
Again, this is NOT a dome of death, blocking high which is almost always the case for long lasting Cornbelt droughts of the past.
However, so far, the models have been OVERpredicting rains, so I will be skeptical of this much rain coming because the pattern doesn't change enough to strongly convince me they are coming.
Below is the upper level/500 mb pattern in 2 weeks from the EE.
Northwest flow! The hope is that El Nino perturbations will come over the ridge and track southeast into the Midwest.
An upper level ridge in the Plains and trough along the East Coast is NOT the best pattern for delivering good rains to the Midwest. It's not likely to end drought, only to stabilize conditions unless it morphs into being unusually active for northwest flow.
Also, areas close to that NON blocking ridge will have bouts of heat and above average temperatures.
El Nino seasonals are very favorable but could be getting trumped by forcing from unusually warm temps in the Atlantic. 