Dec cotton appears to have put in a daily cycle low Thursday past. Action is positive today. Recommend long positions with stop at last week low.
Thanks tjc!
Damage from extremely heavy rains and MONSTER sized hail below:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230614_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230615_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230616_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230617_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/230618_rpts.html
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Too much rain in the Southeast might be a big reason,
I think the cotton crop in China and India may be having issues too?
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive rain threat.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Excessive rain threat.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2423.txt
Cotton condition only dropped 2% from the G/Ex but the HUGE deal was an increase of 5% in the VP category. 3% of that came from the F category.
Specifically the Excellent dropped 3% and Very poor increased 5% which is what tells us that the US cotton crop just got alot smaller in the last week.
Doing a comparison to the previous week:
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2323.txt
We can see that TX, by far the biggest US cotton producing state went from 3% VP last week to a whopping 12% VP this week.
The market anticipating that is what likely has led to recent strength in cotton prices.