INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - May 16, 2023, 4:34 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Wednesday, May 17, 2023  



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 227.8)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +6.3%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 173.7)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.8%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 507.1)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +10.0%)

8:30 AM ET. April New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (previous 1.420M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       Building Permits (previous 1.413M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -8.8%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 462.584M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.951M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.711M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.167M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.153M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.17M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.0%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.164M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.359M)



Thursday, May 18, 2023 



8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (previous -31.3)

                       Prices Paid (previous 8.2)

                       Employment (previous -0.2)

                       New Orders (previous -22.7)

                       Prices Received (previous -3.3)

                       Delivery Times (previous -25.0)

                       Inventories (previous -17.9)

                       Shipments (previous -7.3)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (previous 264K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +22K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1813000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +12K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:00 AM ET. April Existing Home Sales

                       Existing Sales (previous 4.44M)

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -2.4%)

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.6)

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 375700)

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous -0.9%)

10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -1.2%)

                       Leading Index

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2141B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +78B)

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, May 19, 2023  



10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

10:00 AM ET. April State Employment and Unemployment



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply lower on Tuesday.Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 4th low crossing at 32,937.50 would renew the decline off May's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,591.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,591.21. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 34,257.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,144.56. Second support is the May 4th low crossing at 32,937.50.  



The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If June extends this year's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 13,634.24 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,223.39 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,979.17. First resistance is today's high crossing at 13,554.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 13,634.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,223.39. Second support is the May 4th low crossing at 13,001.75.  



The June S&P 500 posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4086.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the February 14th high crossing at 4223.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 1st high crossing at 4206.25. Second resistance is the February 14thhigh crossing at 4223.00. First support is May's low crossing at 4062.25. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3904.06.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed down 17/32's at 129-09. 



June T-bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 1st low crossing at 129-02 would mark a downside breakout of the March-April trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the May 4th high crossing at 133-00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 4thhigh crossing at 133-00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 134-14. First support is today's low crossing at 128-22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 128-08. 



June T-notes closed down 90-pts. At 114.305.



June T-notes closed lower on Tuesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.008. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 114.075 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.196 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 11th high crossing at 116.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 117.015. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 114.075. Second support is April's low crossing at 113.305.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



June crude oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.85 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off last-week's high, the March 24th low crossing at $67.02 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.85. Second resistance is the April 23th high crossing at $79.18. First support is the March 24th low crossing at $67.02. Second support is the May 4thlow crossing at $63.64. 



June heating oil closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3790 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.3790. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4993. First support is the May 4th low crossing at $2.1500. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217.



June unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5632 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.0663 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4867. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5632. First support is May's low crossing at 2.2500. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 2.0663.  



June Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Tuesday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.302. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.454 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, monthly support crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.454. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2.543. First support is the May 5th low crossing at 2.031. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.171. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 103.594 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.557 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 102.745. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $103.586. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.557. Second support is May's low crossing at 100.520.  



The June Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.09263. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices is possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.7774 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10058 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10058. Second resistance is the April 14th high crossing at 1.11145. First support is April's low crossing at 1.08355. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1.7774.



The June British Pound closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2400 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1.2692. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2400. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.2293. 

 

The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the April-May trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 2nd low crossing at 1.11770 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.15040 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 4th high crossing at 1.13940. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.15040. First support is the May 2nd low crossing at 1.11770. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.11333. 



The June Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.85 would open the door for a possible test of April's low. If June renews the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 75.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.35. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 75.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.85. Second support is April's low crossing at 73.23.   



The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075546 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075546. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at 0.076475. First support is the May 2nd low crossing at 0.073055. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1991.60 would open the door for a larger-degree decline during the last-half of May. If June renews the rally off February's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $2085.40. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1991.60. Second support is April's low crossing at $1965.90.  



July silver closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.230 opens the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 23.289. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.273 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.273. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 26.435. First support is today's low crossing at 23.805. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 23.289.  



July copper closed lower on Tuesday as it renews the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.6247 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8739 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8739. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9690. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.6247. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4683.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.11 1/4-cents at $5.81 1/4. 



July corn closed lower on Tuesday as this year's corn planting pace is running 6% above the 5-year average at 65% complete. Technically July continues to extend this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 8th high crossing at $6.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renew the decline off April's high, the November-2021 low crossing at $5.41 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $6.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.11 3/4. First support is the May 3rd low crossing at $5.69 1/4. Second support is the November-2021 low crossing at $5.41 1/2. 



July wheat closed down $0.13 1/4-cents at $6.47 1/2.  



July wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it ended a two-day bounce off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.77 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If July renews the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.77 3/4. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at $7.17 1/4. First support is the May 3rd low crossing at $6.03 3/4. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71. 



July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $8.95 1/4.



July Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.17 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.21 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $9.12 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.17 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.48 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.21 1/2.



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.05 1/2-cents crossing at $8.78 3/4.



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the April 18th high crossing at $8.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.31 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 18th high crossing at $8.95 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $9.13 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.31 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $8.69. 

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down $0.36 3/4-cents at $13.64.



July soybeans closed sharply lower on Tuesday as the latest planting progress report showed that soybean planting is running 13% ahead of the 5-year average with 49% now complete. Today's sell off saw July soybeans test the 75% retracement level of the 2022-rally crossing at $13.60 3/4. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-rally crossing at $13.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.20 1/2 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.20 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.48. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $13.60 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-rally crossing at $13.31.



July soybean meal closed down $4.00 at $426.90. 



July soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $442.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $442.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $447.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $416.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90. 



July soybean oil closed down 224-pts. at 47.45. 



July soybean oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 43.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.26 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 52.13. second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.26. First support is today's low crossing at 47.02. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 43.42. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $1.08 at $87.23. 



June hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes this year's decline, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at $80.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $86.79. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.21. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $82.73. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at $80.99.  



June cattle closed down $0.43 at $163.90. 



June cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the May 1st high crossing at $165.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.51 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 1st high crossing at $165.78. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $166.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.51. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $160.33.     



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.43 at $231.48. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off the May 8th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $232.23 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $222.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $231.80. Second resistance is the April high crossing at $232.23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $222.53. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $217.59. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the May 8th high crossing at $19.00 would mark a possible upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional short covering gains. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $18.06 would renew the decline off April's high thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $19.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $20.49. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $18.06. Second support is the January-April uptrend line crossing near $17.81. 



July cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.71 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 32.15 is the next upside target. 



July sugar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 3rd low crossing at 24.88 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off October's low, weekly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at 29.36 is the next upside target.            



July cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 85.23 is the next upside target. If July renews last-week's decline, May's low crossing at 78.56 is the next downside target.   

Comments
By metmike - May 16, 2023, 5:08 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks very much, tallpine!

We went from almost no rain in the week 2 forecast over the weekend to above average overnight/this morning.

I contend that was the biggest change for influencing price.

The only thing higher today was the HRS/MWE wheat that needs dry weather in the N.Plains because its so far behind and we turned wet there.......which supports this.


The late morning 12z GEFS added a bit of rain for KS later this week ....causing the HRW to sell off 15c in 50 minutes........then rebounded the last hour to only close down slightly. 

Both Hard Red crops, often trade in tandem. 


The rain later this week will help the S.Plains. Ideally, it would go farther north in KS.

A shift farther north or south in those forecast amounts shown below could have a short, double digit price impact on the HRW crop. 


8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability




The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126