I'm a little surprised reading this morning that some analysts have said or think it's been a mild December. Without looking at any stats, at least here in NE Ohio, our December has been markedly colder than the last 2 Decembers.
182 is a pretty big draw for early December
The last 2 draws, especially the one reported today, have been as bullish as any in quite awhile when compared to average WSJ survey guesses. The one today, -182, was 13 to the bullish of the average guess of -169. There hasn't been a report that bullish since the one for the week ending 1/13/16, which was 14 to the bullish. We'll have to see if these 2 are just a temporary reporting blip as I like to see 4 in a row to feel good confidence that there's been a supply/demand balance change of note. But let's suppose these two were't a blip. If that were the case, that would mean we'd be nearing getting back to the very tight supply/demand balance of early last winter, which itself was the tightest in many years.
La nina winter predicted and the price marches downward.
Very clear here that weather has absolutely no relationship to the price of any commodity. And any attempt to trade such fallacy is futile. NG is a premier example. No amount of fudging "dialing in" baloney can patch up the gaping hole in weather trading interpretation. Yah, it is going below 2.50 as we get colder than a witch's come New Year.
I would bet that we only visit 2.5 land in January if/when we warm back up. The next 10-12 days looks very cold in the northern half of the country but it looks like mild zonal flow from the Pacific kicks in after that.
Funds have been selling the crap out of it anytime the forecast is not colder than the previous day because of the previously very bearish fundamental/supply expectation. Larry notes a potential change in that dynamic.
If so, then we are too cheap right now when intense cold causes huge drawdowns.
Although I wouldn't go that far as I still think it has had SOME influence/hasn't been totally ignored, I largely agree with you as I do think that wx hasn't been anywhere near the top market influence over the last few weeks that it often is especially this early in winter. Some other influences have brought it down to such relatively low levels. Even after a strong Friday, Jan closed at only 2.667, which is still just off of longterm lows. Chicago/NYC is projected to have much colder than normal starting Monday/Wednesday for at least a 10 day period! Similar things could be said for MSP, SL, and Cincinnati. So, this is expected to be longlasting, widespread, and intense cold that has yet to actually even begin! Regarding the two weeks surrounding New Year's, this is projected to be colder than the vast majority of the last 100+ winters. Since 1993-4, the only two week periods straddling New Year's that were as cold or colder than what is currently projected on a national NG weighted national HDD basis were 2009-10, 2000-01, and 1998-9. These 3 two week periods averaged 397 in EIA draws (and these were during comparable holiday related demand slowdown periods). This would be enough to bring 1/5/18 EIA storage down to 200 lower than the 5 year average. And that's assuming that this last week's report of -182 on 199 HDDs is a bullish outlier vs what's to come. If it were to turn out to not be an outlier, the deficit could easily end up even quite a bit higher than 200 as of 1/5/2018.
If wx had been its normal in the forefront influence, it certainly wouldn't be near longterm lows, especially with most of the winter still yet to come. MetMike often has said that this kind of thing sometimes does occur in late winter, but we're nowhere near late winter. And this is even after two solidly bullish weekly EIA reports in a row, including arguably the most bullish weekly EIA in nearly a year. There's no way that this degree of cold has been dialed in in a normal way. If it were, when was it dialed in?
I don't know it that will continue, but I wouldn't be shocked if it did. There is nothing that can convince me that wx has been a major influence so far this winter unless cold has become bearish and warm bullish, which of course would make zero sense.
Starting today, Christmas, we in the Northeast are about to experience historic extremes of cold and snow. Snow depth measured in yards and temperatures down to 20 below zero on fierce winds. And a solid full week of this polar devil vortex. Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see NG make new lows, 'cause fundamentals don't mean squat when it comes to futures trading!
NG continues to put wx on the back burner as far as what has been moving it in recent weeks. Hedge funds are obviously controlling it and taking it wherever they want, which currently is down. No way has the coldest 10 day period straddling New Year's in well over 50 years been dialed in and it may never be dialed in. Instead, that extreme cold, is largely being dismissed as insignificant. Therefore, I agree that this is not a wx market right now. Thank goodness I hardly ever trade NG contracts these days! I much prefer to just observe and have fun with guessing contests.
"NG continues to put wx on the back burner as far as what has been moving it in recent weeks."
Indeed, goes to show that there is no back burner, there is no burn. Heck, there is no stove in the first place. The notion that NG has anything to do with the weather or supply and demand is an illusion, self deception, a mirage.
Hedge funds are obviously controlling it and taking it wherever they want, which currently is down.
Exactly! End of story.
No way has the coldest 10 day period straddling New Year's in well over 50 years been dialed in and it may never be dialed in.
Dialed in? There is no phone. There never was. "Dialing in" is a convenient sales pitch catch all used to explain away financial losses.
Instead, that extreme cold, is largely being dismissed as insignificant. Therefore, I agree that this is not a wx market right now.
If this extreme in weather is dismissed as insignificant, then what could possibly ever be significant. Again, speaks to the ridiculousness of it all.
Thank goodness I hardly ever trade NG contracts these days! I much prefer to just observe and have fun with guessing contests.
NG is purely technical. Learn charting and follow specific setups, not specific commodities. Be like the dude 'Local'!