KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 24, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
NAI (previous -0.32)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.16)
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -4.1%; previous +4.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +6.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 240K; previous 239K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -11K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1716000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +32K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3065B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +35B)
11:00 AM ET. August Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -20)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous -1)
Mfg Composite Idx (expected -9; previous -11)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous -2)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, August 25, 2023
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 71.2; previous 71.6)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 68.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 76.6)
Monday, August 28, 2023
10:30 AM ET. August Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -20.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous -4.8)
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.0%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.7%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous -0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.0)
Expectation Idx (previous 88.3)
Present Situation Idx (previous 160)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extend the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,052.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,658.06. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,765.17. First support is Monday's low crossing at 34,248.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,338.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,338.30. Second resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. First support is the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00. Second support is 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 14,117.27.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4492.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4492.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4254.86.
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September T-bonds closed up 2-00/32's at 120-11.
September T-bonds closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off monthly support crossing at 117-19. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-06. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 123-22. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 117-18. Second support is the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26.
September T-notes closed up 255-pts. at 109.275.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it rebounds off support marked by the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.129 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.129. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.191. First support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113.
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October crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August high, the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $81.75. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $84.16. First support is the38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.02.
October heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0406 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 3.1928. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0406. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.9174.
October unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.6145. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.7209. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4177.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off the August 9th high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the August 2nd low crossing at 2.570 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.758 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.758. Second resistance is the August 9th high crossing at 3.096. First support is the August 2nd low crossing at 2.570. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.377.
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The September Dollar posted a downside reversal as it closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.550 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 103.905. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.550. Second support is the August 10th low crossing at 101.600.
The September Euro posted an upside reversal with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 12th low crossing at 1.07920 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10124 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09593. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.10124. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $1.07920. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.
The September British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2797 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2797. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2615. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14593 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14593. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.13655. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar posted an upside reversal as it closed higher on Wednesday to consolidate some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.58. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.02.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069903 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069903. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070840. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.068545. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.
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December gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI were oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1955.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extended the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1955.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1974.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1913.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30.
September silver closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the July 31st high crossing at 24.985 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.008 would signal a likely end to the rally off last-Tuesday's low. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 24.985. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 25.475. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.008. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 22.450.
September copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8186 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8186. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.6270. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
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December Corn closed up $0.11-cents at $4.90 1/2.
December corn closed higher on Wednesday as brutal heat across much of the corn belt is taking its tole on corn yields. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.23 3/4. First support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.12 1/4-cents at $6.39 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.59 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.59 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.87. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.16-cents at $7.63 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.82 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below May's low crossing at $7.36 would mark a downside breakout of the December-August trading range. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.82 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.16 1/4. First support is May's low crossing at $7.36. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $7.29 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.11 1/2-cents crossing at $8.03 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.36 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.36 3/4. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2.
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November soybeans closed up $0.14 1/2-cents at $13.60 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as scorching heat across large portions of the Midwest are cutting bean yields. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $14.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.33 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $13.81. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.33 1/4. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at $12.82 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $6.00 at $401.00.
December soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $397.20 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the August 4th high crossing at $407.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $390.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 4th high crossing at $407.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support is August's low crossing at $379.00. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60.
December soybean oil closed up 117 pts. at 62.97.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, last-October's high crossing at 66.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 65.39. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 66.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.91.
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October hogs closed down $1.03 at $78.53.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish with signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the June 6th low crossing at $74.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $82.48. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $74.03.
October cattle closed up $0.05 at $178.68.
October cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 6th low crossing at $176.20 is the next downside target. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is August's high crossing at $183.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $176.20. Second support is the June 21st low crossing at $171.83.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.20 at $251.03.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is August's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $248.79. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the January low crossing at $14.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.11. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $14.72. Second support is the January low crossing at $14.49.
December cocoa closed unchanged on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 32.63 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low, July's high crossing at 25.30 is the next upside target. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 21.88 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 3rd low crossing at 83.25 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, July's high crossing at 88.83 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
The Pro Farmer tour hit some areas that were hurt by the severe drought in June. Comments today were much more bullish than previous days, especially since these were higher producing locations.