KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, August 23, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 193)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 149.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 408.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.0)
10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 697K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.4)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.662M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.96M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 216.158M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.262M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.743M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.296M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.663M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.936M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extend the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,106.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,650.34. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 34,832.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 34,248.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,333.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,333.84. Second resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. First support is the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00. Second support is 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 14,117.27.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Tuesday following a two-day bounce off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signaling a short-term low has likely been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4500.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4500.39. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4254.86.
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September T-bonds closed up 15/32's at 118-11.
September T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it bounced off monthly support crossing at 117-19. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124-16. First support is today's low crossing at 117-18. Second support is theFebruary-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26.
September T-notes closed down 15-pts. at 109.010.
September T-notes closed slightly lower on Tuesday after failing to test support marked by the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.165 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.282. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.165. First support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113.
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October crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August high, the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $81.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at $78.33. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68.
October heating oil closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0271 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 3.1928. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0272. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.9174.
October unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2.7209. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.5080. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off the August 9th high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the August 2nd low crossing at 2.570 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off the August 2nd low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.301 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 9th high crossing at 3.096. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.301. First support is the August 2nd low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
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The September Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.417 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 103.625. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.417. Second support is the August 10th low crossing at 101.600.
The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 12th low crossing at 1.07920 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10111 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09721. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.10111. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $1.07920. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.
The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2793 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2793. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.2619. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14727 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14727. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.13655. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.68 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.68. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 73.68. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070039 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.069117. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070039. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.068545. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extended the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1975.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1933.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1958.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1913.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30.
September silver closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.709 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.445. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.709. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 22.450. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452.
September copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8178 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8178. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.6270. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.03-cents at $4.79 1/2.
December corn closed lower on Tuesday as it extends Monday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.25. First support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.02-cents at $6.27 1/2.
December wheat closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.87 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.00 1/2-cent at $7.47 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday as it the trading range of the past six-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at $7.36 would mark a downside breakout of the December-August trading range. Closes above the August 8th high crossing at $7.89 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 8th high crossing at $7.89 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.16 3/4. First support is May's low crossing at $7.36. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $7.29 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.08 3/4-cents crossing at $7.73 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.42 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.13 2/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.42. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.15 3/4-cents at $13.46.
November soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $14.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.27 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $13.81. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.27 3/4. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at $12.82 1/4.
December soybean meal closed down $1.50 at $395.00.
December soybean meal closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $396.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $396.60. Second resistance is the August 4th high crossing at $407.70. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60. Second support is May's low crossing at $361.80.
December soybean oil closed down 198 pts. at 61.80.
December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, last-October's high crossing at 66.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 65.39. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 66.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.68.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $1.05 at $79.58.
October hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI were turning neutral to bullish with signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the June 6th low crossing at $74.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $74.03.
October cattle closed down $1.25 at $178.63.
October cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 6th low crossing at $176.20 is the next downside target. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is August's high crossing at $183.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $176.20. Second support is the June 21st low crossing at $171.83.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.43 at $251.23.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is August's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $248.65. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the January low crossing at $14.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.32. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $14.72. Second support is the January low crossing at $14.49.
December cocoa closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 32.63 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed unchanged on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the July 7th low crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, July's high crossing at 25.30 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 3rd low crossing at 83.25 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.
Thanks much, tallpine!