KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. August Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -9)
Shipments Idx (previous -6)
10:00 AM ET. July Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 4.16M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -3.3%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 410200)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous -0.9%)
1:00 PM ET. July Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)
Wednesday, August 23, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 193)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 149.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 408.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.0)
10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 697K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.4)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.662M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.96M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 216.158M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.262M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.743M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.296M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.663M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.936M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Global stocks extended their comeback rally on Tuesday, while benchmark Treasury yields scaled 16-year highs on concerns that interest rates could stay higher for longer and the safe-haven dollar pulled back from recent 10-week highs. Overnight strength sets the stage a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,335.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 8th low crossing at 14,425.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,335.91. Second resistance is the July 17th high crossing at 15,917.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at 14,425.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Friday's low to consolidate some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4501.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4444.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4487.65. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at 4305.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-15 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124-16. First support is the overnight low crossing at 117-18. Second support is the February-2011 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 116-26.
September T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.168 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 109.288. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.168. First support is the overnight low crossing at 108.280. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Octobercrude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends Monday's losses. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off the June 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $87.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $84.16. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $87.70. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at $78.33. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68.
October heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 crossing at 3.2100 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0258 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 3.1928. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0258. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.9174.
October unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.7209. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $3.0221. First support is August 3rd low crossing at $2.4847. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4086.
October natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 2.570 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.810 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 9th high crossing at 3.096. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.301. First support is August's low crossing at 2.570. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.570. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.377.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at $104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.405 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $103.575. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $104.205. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $103.002. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.405.
The September Euro was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 12th low crossing at 1.07920 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.10118 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1.10850. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at $1.11770. First support is July's low crossing at 1.08715. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at 1.07920.
The September British Pound was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term. Closes above the August 10th high crossing at 1.2822 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance the August 10th high crossing at 1.2822. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2658. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight but remains poised to extend the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14740 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.13620 would open the door for a possible test of the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14740. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 1.15535. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.13620. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $73.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 10th high crossing at $74.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.13. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $74.82. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $73.49. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at crossing at $73.02.
The September Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070041 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070041. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070909. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.068545. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Precious Metals: December gold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, February's low crossing at $1883.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1958.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1934.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1958.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1919.90. Second support is February's low crossing at $1883.80.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $22.450. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.709 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $21.452 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.446. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.709. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $22.450. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $21.452.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8180 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8180. Second resistance is the August 4th high crossing at 3.9280. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.6270. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
Grains: December corn was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 11th high crossing at $5.07 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.25. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $4.73 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4.
December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.64 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.87 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.88 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.88 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.16 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.39. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.36.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.42 1/2 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.14 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.42 1/2. First support is the June 8th low crossing at $7.98 1/4. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $13.81 would open the door for a possible test of July's low crossing at $14.35. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31st gap crossing at $13.79. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.29. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.82 3/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $396.70 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $401.60. Second resistance is the August 4th high crossing at $407.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $379.00. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60.
December soybean oil was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off the August 8th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, last-October's high crossing at 66.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 66.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.71.
Thanks, tallpine!
The crop deteriorated slightly on Monday. A bigger drop coming next Monday but September is right around the corner with early harvest and weather rapidly losing its ability to impact prices.
Most recent discussions here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98432/
We had a buying exhaustion signature on Sunday Night, gapping higher, then closing the gap. First with corn early Monday morning, then beans later Monday morning.
The beans used that as temporary support on Monday but the failure of the gap to hold tells us that the market psychology has shifted to more bearish because the gap higher was unable to generate any follow thru from aggressive buying.
If this were June/July, the C and S would be off to the races but in late August.........hot/dry has lost its ability to hurt the crop enough to generate speculative buying from big traders.
More later this morning.