KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, August 17, 2023
8:30 AM ET. August Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected -10; previous -13.5)
Prices Paid (previous 9.5)
Employment (previous -1.0)
New Orders (previous -15.9)
Prices Received (previous 23.0)
Delivery Times (previous -12.9)
Inventories (previous -1.0)
Shipments (previous -12.5)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 240K: previous 248K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1684000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. July Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.7%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +110.0%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +118.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3030B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +29B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, August 18, 2023
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
10:00 AM ET. July State Employment and Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and sets the stage a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,417.67 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,417.67. Second resistance is the July 17th high crossing at 15,917.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 14,789.53. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at 14,425.00.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 26th low crossing at 4368.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4530.07 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4530.07. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. First support is July's low crossing at 4411.25. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 4368.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117-19 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-20 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-01. First support is the overnight low crossing at 118-20. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117-19.
September T-notes were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.293 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 110.153. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.296. First support is the overnight low crossing at 109.055. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Octobercrude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.24 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off the June 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $87.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $84.16. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $87.70. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at $78.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.24.
October heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9715 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 crossing at 3.2100 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.1928. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9715. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.9174.
October unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5984 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847. If October renews the rally off the June 23rd low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.7209. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chartcrossing at $3.0221. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5984. Second support is August 3rd low crossing at $2.4847.
October natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.736 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off August's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.018. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.301. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.736. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.570.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at $104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $101.600 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $103.495. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $104.205. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $102.614. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.057.
The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 1.08715 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10064 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10850. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at $1.11770. First support is July's low crossing at 1.08715. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.
The September British Pound was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.2822 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.2822. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2658. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1.13700 would open the door for a possible test of the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15059 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.15059. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.13700. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $73.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 10th high crossing at $74.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.41. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.00. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at $73.49. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at crossing at $73.02.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070402 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.069630. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070402. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.068545. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Precious Metals: December gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off July's high, February's low crossing at $1883.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1981.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1948.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1971.10. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1919.90. Second support is February's low crossing at $1883.80.
September silver was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $22.450. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $21.452 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.778 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.872. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.778. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $22.450. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $21.452.
September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8217 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8217. Second resistance is the August 4th high crossing at 3.9280. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.6270. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
Grains: December corn was lower overnight as it remains well entrenched in the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $5.07 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $4.73 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.50 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.84. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.15 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $7.89 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $7.89 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.39. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.36.
December Minneapolis wheat was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.60 3/4 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.25 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/4. First support is the June 8th low crossing at $7.98 1/4. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.46 would signal that a low has been posted. If November renews the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.46 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.46. Second resistance is the July 31st gap crossing at $13.79. First support is the 50% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.82 3/4. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off July's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.70 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $395.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.70. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $361.80.
December soybean oil was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off the August 8th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, July's high crossing at 65.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 62.88. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.91. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 57.86.
Thanks much tallpine!
Beans took a stab at recent highs/resistance again overnight and failed.
The period of hot/dry weather coming up is probably dialed in and its just too late in the growing season to trade weather.
As mentioned, the pattern towards the end of the month reverts back to the ridge weakening and backing up to its favorite position in the Southwest.
This leaves the Midwest back in the northwest type flow regime over the top of the ridge with potential for perturbations to increase rain chances again, after 10 days of dry weather and a week of major heat.
I feel like the 8-14 day forecasts will be increasing rain chances and decreasing the heat for the rest of the week, especially from the N.Plains/Upper Midwest to ECB.
This was the last 0z European model for September 1st.
1. 500 mb. Heat ridge back in the Southwest. Northwest flow becoming more active again.
2. Rains increasing in that flow. 2 week totals
If you've been following the weather at all, you can see the amazing change in the weather maps here on the just updated 12z Canadian model for very early September.
This confirms my thoughts for the past day, that this hot/dry pattern will be transitory and by the end of the month, we'll be morphing to a look more like that one below for September 2nd.
If anything, the pattern below will feature some heavy rain events in the fast flow coming over the top of the heat ridge that will settle back to the south.
Especially with the trough out West/Rockies.
Northwest flow is more progressive with rain events. This is west/southwest flow which can feature a stalled front and repeat rains over the same areas, especially in the age of slightly higher dewpoints and more moisture in part because of REAL climate change. .........one of the negatives(besides slightly higher temps in the Summer)
https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 02, 2023 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
As expected, the 8-14 day is losing heat and adding more rains. There's plenty of uncertainty though and September is just too late for the weather to matter a great deal.
We'll have the remnants of a hurricane dumping alot of rain in the West, starting this weekend in the Southwest but doesn't look like a market factor or serious problem. Probably more beneficial than anything, especially for lowering wildfire risks!
Extended weather.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |||||||||
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