https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97818/#98048
July 2023 Satellite Temperature-2nd warmest
By metmike - Aug. 8, 2023, 3:03 p.m.
We finally have something that makes sense to me to explain the sudden, extreme warming in so many places.
Since the opposite has been hammered into brains from junk science reporting, let me repeat this:
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Extremely slow global warming (1 deg. C over 100 years) doesn't hide for 99 years and suddenly come out in 2023. That's complete scientific nonsense repeated by people that want to believe or are intentionally deceiving.
Keep in mind that 95% of the greenhouse gas warming impact on this planet comes from water vapor.
++++++++++++++++++++++
When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted on Jan. 15, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth’s global average temperature.
“We’ve never seen anything like it,” said Luis Millán, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a new study examining the amount of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth’s surface.
The atmospheric water vapor could also contribute to global warming.
https://www.livescience.com/tonga-eruption-water-vapor
+++++++++++++++++++
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00618-z
The phreato-Plinian HT eruption of 15th January 2022 produced the largest global perturbation of stratospheric aerosols since the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 and the largest perturbation of stratospheric water vapour observed in the satellite era
The large stratospheric water vapour perturbation associated with the HT eruption had also a fundamental role in the plume’s radiative impacts during the first weeks after the eruption, causing a fast radiatively-driven plume descent and a warming effect on the climate system. These very peculiar radiative impacts, as well as the long-term impacts of the HT eruption on the stratospheric composition, must be followed and confirmed during the next months with further studies.
++++++
16 March 2023
The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years
https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming
++++++++++++
January 25, 2023
https://phys.org/news/2023-01-tonga-eruption-chances-global-temperature.html
++++++++++++++++++
Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection
August 2023
SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Volcanic eruptions typically cool the Earth’s surface by releasing aerosols which reflect sunlight. However, a recent eruption released a significant amount of water vapor — a strong greenhouse gas — into the stratosphere with unknown consequences. This study examines the aftermath of the eruption and re- veals that surface temperatures across large regions of the world increase by over 1.5°C for several years,
Added: There were several other factors that contributed to this warming, 2 of which were discussed here previously.
1. El Nino
2. Less SO2 emissions from ships
++++++++++++++++++++
3. There are a couple of others, including unusual pressure/wind anomalies in the North Atlantic and less Saharan Dust. More on that in additional posts.
Hey Mike,
This is a key quote from one of the links you posted:
The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance caused by the eruption and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature by up to 0.035°C over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly for a single event, but it’s not outside the usual level of noise in the climate system, Jenkins said. But in the context of the Paris Agreement, it’s a big concern.
“If we’re only a quarter of a degree from 1.5°C, those four hundredths of a degree do actually make a tangible difference,” he said. The planet was already 50% likely to warm past 1.5°C in the next 5 years, and the presence of HTHH’s water vapor increased the odds of temporarily exceeding that threshold to 57%, according to the simulation.
-----------------------
My thoughts fwiw: Based strictly on the above and realizing that later studies may disagree, I don't think that it can yet be concluded that the volcano largely by itself likely lead to the new world temperature jumping so suddenly several tenths C this summer, especially in July, to new warm records. The above says by up to only +0.04C (rounded) over the next five years. That is at most only ~15-20% of the several tenths C of summer warming.
But like you, I am wondering how such a sharp additional warming this summer could occur just due to AGW. Maybe it is but I admit to being at least a little skeptical. Something doesn't seem right.
Could it be the combo of the very strong warming in Nino 1+2 to over +3C anomalies and ongoing AGW?
Good points, Larry.
I don't think they can possibly know with accuracy how much warming the additional H2O in the stratosphere is causing.
You're right, that part of the warming is surely from the El Nino. I'd been expecting that since early this year. .....but then we developed marine heat waves all over the planet very suddenly.
Probably some could be from the reducing of sulfur in the diesel fuel that you brought up several months ago that led to a great discussion.....with me going on a tangent into other areas as usual (-:
Reduced sulfur emissions in shipping lanes causing record high solar absorption Started by WxFollower - April 6, 2023, 12:04 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94386/
So a combination of factors, not limited to just those above(an odd wind anomaly in the N.Atlantic) and I should adjust my previous post which was very misleading and sort of impulsive to make that more clear, thanks.
One thing that I've been emphatic about in recently months is that the contribution from greenhouse gas warming this year is the same amount as the previous 40 years on the graph below.
The spike higher had the absolute fingerprint of natural variation.
Global warming wasn't hiding in the deep ocean for numerous decades and suddenly came out in 2023.
Record-breaking North Atlantic Ocean temperatures contribute to extreme marine heatwaves
In fact, the absorption bands for CO2 are becoming increasingly saturated and we are getting less and less warming from every X amount of added CO2 compared to the previous X amount. It follows a logarithmic scale as seen below.
Getting the same amount of additional forcing to that which just occurred from 290 ppm to 420 ppm an increase of 130 ppm, would require an additional increase of double that at 260 ppm to 680 ppm, if there were no H2O.
However, many people calculate the theoretical decreased forcing of CO2 in the absence of other gases which is greatly flawed. In most places on this planet, H2O is the main greenhouse gas(95%), crowding out CO2's ability to absorb radiation. The most humid places on the planet, where H2O has saturated some of those bands already, the amount of heating from CO2 is already being minimized. It doesn't matter what CO2 would do in very dry air if the air is NOT dry.
Why the Forcing from Carbon Dioxide Scales as the Logarithm of Its Concentration
https://romps.berkeley.edu/papers/pubdata/2020/logarithmic/20logarithmic.pdf
Climate Hysteria Ramps Up in Antarctica but Recent Data Shows Sea Ice Levels Similar to 1966
++++++++++++++
This article reminds me of something that I'd forgotten about recently which is the impact of geothermal heat may not be getting enough weighting in 2023, with the unexplained, sudden marine heat waves that could not have been caused by global warming which slowly warms the oceans at the rate of 1deg. C over the course of a century.
The above map from Singh and Polvani shows that all the warming in Antarctica is to be found in the west. It is to this area that eco warriors return with tales of collapsing ice shelves and glaciers. But it has always been known that the west side is an area of considerable volcanic activity. The full extent of this has recently been shown by scientists working at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. They provide scientific evidence that shows a “direct link” between recent western ice loss and geothermal heat flow. Furthermore, they state that it is common to attribute changes in ice dynamics and loss to atmospheric and oceanic influences. “However, recent studies suggest a direct link between the origin of ice streams and zones of increased heat flow,” it is no
This is one of the best examples of applying objective meteorology/climate that I know of to analyze and try to explain a complicated dynamic with profound significance that lacks clear smoking guns and appears to be from a host of unique elements.
It's exactly what Larry and I have been pondering in this thread.........but goes beyond my unassisted investigating/reporting skills.
This is why I've always held Judith Curry as a favorite of mine to follow. She is an elite climate scientist and teacher.
https://judithcurry.com/2023/08/14/state-of-the-climate-summer-2023/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/08/15/state-of-the-climate-summer-2023/
Conclusions
This Report has provided an integrated look at the global climate from the perspective of the global radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere, components of the surface energy balance, and the internal modes of climate variability driven by atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Recent anomalies are introduced by external forcing from the Hunga-Tonga eruption in 2022 and the change in sulfate aerosol emissions from ship fuels which started in 2015 and was mandated in 2020.
The exceptionally warm global temperature in 2023 is part of a trend of warming since 2015 that is associated primarily with greater absorption of solar radiation in the earth-atmosphere system. This increase in absorbed solar radiation is driven by a slow decline in springtime snow extent, but primary by a reduction in reflection from the atmosphere driven by reduced cloudiness and to a lesser extent a reduction in atmospheric aerosol. Any increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing CO2 (which impacts the longwave radiation budget) is lost in the noise.
El Nino and La Nina introduce strong interannual variability into the top-of-atmosphere and surface energy balances. Against this strong background of interannual variability, there is discernible evidence of the impact of the change in ship aerosols primarily in the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The impacts of Hunga Tonga in the stratosphere are primarily expected to occur in the winter hemisphere, because of cancelling of longwave and shortwave effects in the summer hemisphere.
Global variations in the surface energy budget show anomalous shortwave heating in the mid latitude Northern Hemisphere, which is influenced by the reduction of sulfate aerosols from ship fuel. The eastern north Atlantic is warming from anomalously low turbulent heat fluxes, reflecting weak surface winds particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In the mid/high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere Oceans, there is strong cooling from surface turbulent fluxes that are associated with strong wind speeds.
In the North Atlantic, a decomposition of the modes of atmospheric circulation patterns shows a confluence of factors that are contributing to the anomalous sea surface temperatures and circulation during summer 2023. The implied positive feedbacks between SSTs and atmospheric circulation in our analysis provide a reasonable explanation for the occasional development and persistence of extreme SST anomalies, as seen in the spring of 2023.
Of direct relevance to Atlantic hurricanes, warming in the midlatitudes of the NH, with possible contribution from reduced sulfate aerosol, has given the northern branch of the AMO+ new life, which had overall been cooling since 2015.
Distorted warming in colder drier areas of the north Atlantic disturbs the vertical velocity patterns, leading to the expansion of the Hadley Cell. The Hadley Cell expansion is consistent with the Bermuda High being fairly far north this year, with intensified dry air over the subtropical oceans. This pattern may support a northward shift of tropical cyclone formation and suppression of low latitude formation.
+++++++++++++++++++
Mike Maguire
August 15, 2023 3:36 pm
Not to ignore many wonderful articles here in the past but for me, as an operational meteorologist for 4 decades….this was THE BEST.
Thank you Dr. Curry for looking in depth at so many complicated and some uncertain elements potentially contributing to this sudden warming.
Explaining in detail what they are so that most people can understand(I hope).
Giving historical perspectives and analogs.
Sharing your wonderful, gifted insights of authentic science with the world based on solid principles of physics and meteorology!
We’re fortunate to have you!
+++++++++++
Mike Maguire
Reply to Izaak Walton
August 16, 2023 6:08 am
Isaak,
They were looking for the CO2 signal and commented on that. You’re just conditioned to reading mainstream article’s that automatically blame CO2 while ignoring/not looking at all the other key contributing factors.
I’ll repeat something that Cliff Mass stated awhile back that applies so often, including here:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The Golden Rule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDEN RULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
While the marine heat waves are different in some respects, the fact still remains.
The forcing from CO2 has been a constant and pretty much dialed into our understanding. Sort of like superimposing X amount of forcing that has very slowly warmed the system over 100 years(even though models have been programmed with around 50% too much CO2 forcing-we still have those base case assumptions)
It SUPERIMPOSES that X amount of warming on top of the entire system, with an unequal distribution (greater in the coldest/driest places).
When we have an extreme spike in regional warming/cooling like this, the X amount of CO2 forcing is still the same as it was in recent years with a tiny addition each year but there must have been some internal variations, related to NON CO2 forcing. related to either a natural variation or, in the case of burning the low sulfur diesel fuel, a DIFFERENT human caused variation.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/23/ryan-maue-on-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-submarine-volcano/
The 40 Trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere represents an unprecedented amount injected in the stratosphere.
Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.
But, Hunga Tonga had only 2% of the SO2 as Pinatubo but a gargantuan amount of water vapor, which is well known to WARM the Earth. The question is how much?
+++++++++++++++
Judith Curry is also the main author of the discussion on the previous page.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98049/#98297
When people like her speak authentic science, what the dishonest media does much of the time, is claim that her position is that she doesn't believe in climate change. Or that she doesn't believe that humans are responsible.
Then, they refer to her as a climate denier and claim that 97% of climate scientists believe in the climate crisis and almost nobody believes in her crazy outlier position.
As it turns out, Dr. Curry and metmike are both in that 97%!!!
What they don't tell you is that the 97% INCLUDES scientists like Dr. Curry and metmike that KNOW we're having climate change and that most of it is probably caused by humans. This even includes atmospheric scientists, like metmike that KNOW that climate change is providing more weather and CO2 benefits to life than harm based on authentic science......and recognize that humans are responsible for that.
Yes, even scientists like that are in the 97%!
