KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 20, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected -10.0; previous -13.7)
Prices Paid (previous 10.5)
Employment (previous -0.4)
New Orders (previous -11.0)
Prices Received (previous 0.1)
Delivery Times (previous -16.1)
Inventories (previous -3.5)
Shipments (previous 9.9)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 240K; previous 237K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1729000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +11K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 4.20M; previous 4.30M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous +0.2%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.0)
Median Price (USD) (previous 396100)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous -3.1%)
10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.6%; previous -0.7%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2930B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +49B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The overnight sell off was triggered by Netflix Inc.'s largest intra-day decline since December after missing sales estimates and projecting third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates. Tesla Inc. stock also fell due to declining profitability in the second quarter due to shrinking margins. Overnight weakness sets the stage a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,394.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15,611.75. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,394.31.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4481.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4609.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4639.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4527.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4481.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 10th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 128-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 128-21. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 129-16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-11. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-30.
September T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.155 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.001 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.155. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.001. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at 110.050.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Augustcrude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off the June 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $77.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85. First support is Monday's low crossing at 73.84. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.48.
September heating oil was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 2.6618 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4982 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.6681. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.7273. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.5454. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4982.
September unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at $2.8215 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4987 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.6898. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at $2.8215. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.5464. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4987.
September natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the June 26th high crossing at 2.911 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 2.249 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 26th high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 6th high, the March 30th low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.486 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $100.337. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.486. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $99.220. Second support is the March 30th -2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $97.730.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the March 30th -2022 crossing at $1.15190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10655 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1.13105. Second resistance is the March 30th -2022 crossing at $1.15190. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.11800. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10655.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday high. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2844 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3146. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2844. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2663.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14281 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.17650. Second resistance is the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.16070. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14281.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the September-12th -2022 high crossing at $77.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $76.28. Second resistance is the September-12th -2022 high crossing at $77.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.10.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071312 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-July decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.073585. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071312. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Precious Metals: Augustgold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $2000.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1942.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at $2046.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1942.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $1900.60.
September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at $25.561 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.756 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $25.475. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 25.561. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $24.543. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.975.
September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the June 29th low, June's high crossing at 3.9640 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7837 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance June's high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7837. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 3.6830.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
Grains: December corn was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.55 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.73 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.13 3/4.
September wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $7.95 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.78 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the overnight rally, the May 17th high crossing at $9.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.25 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.91. Second resistance is the May 17th high crossing at $9.02. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.25 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.60 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.16 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.60 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.39 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off May's low, the May-2022 high crossing at $14.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. Second resistance is the May-2022 high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.43 1/4. Second support is the July 7th low crossing at $13.15 1/2.
December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the June 29th low, the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $397.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $388.00.
December soybean oil is working on a possible inside day and was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 61.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.81. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 54.67.
Thanks much, tallpine!
Rain amounts in week 2 continue to creep slightly higher with very great uncertainty.
The weather is still NOT bearish, just a bit less bullish.
The weather turned hotter overnight which boosted ng!
The Canadian model, not followed as closely as the other models comes out an hour before the US model and 2 hours before the European model.
Here's the 12z run just out for 384 hours.
More bearish members than bullish. It also added a bit more rain than the previous runs.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 05, 2023 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)