KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Wednesday, July 19, 2023 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 208.4)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 165.3)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.8%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 416)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.3%)

8:30 AM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (expected 1.48M; previous 1.631M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -9.3%; previous +21.7%)

                       Building Permits (expected 1.48M; previous 1.491M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected -0.7%; previous +5.2%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 458.128M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.946M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.452M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.004M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 118.181M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.815M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 93.7%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.701M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.534M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed sharply higher on Tuesday led by bank stocks as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the April-2022 high crossing at 35,492.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,153.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April - 2022 high crossing at 35,492.22. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,152.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,761.10.  

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extended this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 15,063.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16,012.50. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 15,063.25. Second support is the June 26^th low crossing at 14,853.50.  

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4411.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4590.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4501.15. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4464.54.      

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September T-bonds closed up 10/32's at 126-28. 

September T-bonds closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 127-16 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the March 22^nd low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 122-22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127-16. Second resistance is the June 26^th high crossing at 128-22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-12. Second support is July's low crossing at 122-30. 

September T-notes closed up 5-pts. at 112.235.

September T-notes closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 6^th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.199 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.267 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.267. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.267. Second support is July's low crossing at 110.050. 

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August crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $77.33. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.12. Second support is the June 12^thlow crossing at $66.96.   

September heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 2.6618 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4802 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.6618. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.7273. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4802. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4114.    

September unleaded gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23^rd low, April's high crossing at 2.6388 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4768 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.6345. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2.6388. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5452. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4768.

September Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.655 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target.First resistance is the June high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.249. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 97.730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.673 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.934. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.673. First support is today's low crossing at 99.220. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 97.730.   

The September Euro closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought bur remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the March 30^th high crossing at 1.15190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10419 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1.13105. Second resistance is the March 30^th high crossing at 1.15190. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.11137. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10419. 

The September British Pound closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2830 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3146. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2944. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2830.    

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.13831 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.17535. Second resistance is the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.15080. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.13831. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off the January 7^th low, the September 12^th 2022 high crossing at 77.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the September 12^th high crossing at 77.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.05.    

The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071238 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.073585. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071238. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.   

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed higher on Tuesday as it resumed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $2000.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1938.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $2102.20. First support is June's low crossing at $1911.40. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.  

September silver closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.003 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25.405. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.003. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.540.  

September copper closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off the June 29^th low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7866 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month's rally, June's high crossing at 3.9640 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7866. Second support is June's low crossing at 3.6600.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed up $0.28 1/2-cents at $5.34 1/2. 

December corn closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low.  The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.03 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4. Second resistance is fib resistance crossing at $5.63 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $4.81. Second support is the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2. 

September wheat closed up $0.17-cents at $6.70 3/4.  

September wheat closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.78 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.78 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.22. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4. 

September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.12-cents at $8.27 1/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the July 6^th high crossing at $8.55 3/4 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the July 3^rd low crossing at $7.87 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 6^th high crossing at $8.55 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. First support is the July 3^rd low crossing at $7.87 1/4. Second support is the June 14^th low crossing at $7.76 3/4.

September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.00 3/4-cents crossing at $8.77 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, April's high crossing at $9.10 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.37 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $9.10 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.55 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.37 1/4.      

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed up $0.17 1/4-cents at $13.95 1/4.

November soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.38 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. Second resistance is the December-2022 high crossing at $14.27 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.38 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.62 1/2.  

December soybean meal closed up $6.80 at $416.20. 

December soybean meal closed higher on Tuesday as it renewed the rally off the late-June low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $397.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $397.60. Second support is the July 7^th low crossing at $384.70.   

December soybean oil closed down 56-pts. at 59.78. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 61.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 61.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.22. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at 54.67. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $1.88 at $96.65. 

August hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $100.14. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.99.    

August cattle closed up $1.23 at $181.35. 

August cattle closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $181.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $170.28. 

August Feeder cattle closed down $1.45 at $247.80. 

August Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $241.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $251.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $241.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $237.38.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.22 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.22. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20. 

September cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 37.75 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 32.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        

October sugar closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.  

December cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 84.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.