POST OF THE EPOCH-thanks mcfarmer!

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Started by metmike - July 15, 2023, 2:51 p.m.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97269/#97273

Read the comments and you'll see what makes this one so special!

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Re: POST OF THE EPOCH-thanks mcfarmer!

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By tjc - July 15, 2023, 7:45 p.m.

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McFarm, thank you for the GREAT enlightenment.

MetMike, I am thrilled that you are so fascinated by this 'revelation' and that you will explore the ramifications thereof.

I am fixated by WHAT THIS MEANS TO THE ULTIMATE PRICE OF CORN AND BEANS! Presumably, the 'market' does NOT (yet) know that presumably YIELDS will be BETTER. Thus, any (new/continued) weather issues ultimately will NOT have the yield impact that market prices (rally) normally should prove to be accurate. IF, IF I have 'summarized' McFarm/MetMike revelation, that means a BIG short position may/will be profitable PRIOR to actual harvest! When and at what price!!

MetMike, you are the 'scientist'--have I accurately stated the trader dilemma?

Re: Re: POST OF THE EPOCH-thanks mcfarmer!

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By metmike - July 15, 2023, 11:43 p.m.

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thanks tjc!

1. This is mcfarmer from IA and not mcfarm from IN. Both farm for a living

2. I was telling my wife that the only way for us to dial in the impact of the smoke plume's benefits to the Cornbelt would be to have wildfire smoke data which is impossible to have.

3. We would need to have daylight hourly smoke plume information across most of the belt which would be almost impossible to get.

4. Even if we had that, we would to have this modeled based on numerous studies/experiments that gave us values based on the amount of diffusion for the amount of smoke and the changes to different crops.

5. And even if we had that, it appears that those numbers are different for dry soils vs moist soils. Possibly different for different temps and humidity levels and even wind.

We can dial in the positive impact of something like CO2 because of dozens of studies using CO2 enrichment. From year to year, this is only going to result in a small change. With the smoke plumes impact, the changes can be from 0 to ..............whatever the high side is. Maybe this year is the highest?

6. I would think that the crop ratings on Monday's would reflect this impact. The condition is based on ALL the elements combined and doesn't separate out individual elements. mcfarmer give us an anecdotal report about his crops/plants doing especially well for the given weather this year, based on comparing it with conditions in the past. He has finely tuned observational skills but it's impossible to assign a number to this for just the smoke because we don't have the data.

At the end of the year, when we have all the data from the yields, we might be able to compare that to the weather and try to see a smoke plume impact. However, there are another dozen variables that also have an impact. The different weather elements. Timing of the rains, sunshine and heat, planting dates, hybrids and so on.

With Air quality alert days and particulate matter measurements. What makes it even trickier, is that a thicker smoke plume on a cloudy day probably has less impact than on a sunny day.

And what if the sunny part of the day had clean air and the cloudy part had smoke?