KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 17, 2023
8:30 AM ET. July Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 6.6)
Employment Idx (previous -3.6)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.1)
Prices Received (previous 9.0)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off the June 26th low, the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,112.43 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 34,588.68. Second resistance is the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,112.43. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,701.46.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 15,063.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 15,857.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is Monday's low crossing at 15,063.25. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 14,853.50.
The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4411.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4560.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4411.25. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 4368.50.
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September T-bonds closed down 23/32's at 126-09.
September T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 127-23 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the March 22nd low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 122-22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127-23. Second resistance is the June 26th high crossing at 128-22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-13. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 122-30.
September T-notes closed down 185-pts. at 112.150.
September T-notes posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.255 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.228 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.255. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.228. Second support is July's low crossing at 110.050. Second support is the October 21st low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off the June 28th low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $71.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $77.30. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $71.76. Second support is the June 12thlow crossing at $66.96.
September heating oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 2.6618 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4693 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.6618. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.7273. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4693. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3985.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23rd low, April's high crossing at 2.6388 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4646 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 2.6211. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2.6388. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5099. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4646.
September Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. This week's closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.552 open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 2.249. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target.First resistance is the June high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is today's low crossing at 2.487. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 97.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.413 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 101.549. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.414. First support is today's low crossing at 99.260. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 97.73.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought bur remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the March 30th high crossing at 1.15190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10146 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1.12805. Second resistance is the March 30th high crossing at 1.15190. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.10146. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09401.
The September British Pound closed slightly lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2806 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3146. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2806. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2633.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.12878 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.17535. Second resistance is the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.14148. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.13424.
The September Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal down as it closed sharply lower on Friday leaving today's high as a possible double top with June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends this week's rally, the September 12th 2022 high crossing at 77.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the September 12th high crossing at 77.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.97.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071153 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.073430. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071153. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1976.50 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1976.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $2000.70. First support is June's low crossing at $1911.40. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.
September silver closed higher for the third-day in a row on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.448 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25.255. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.043. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.448.
September copper closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off the June 29th low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 3.9640 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7874 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7874. Second support is June's low crossing at 3.6600.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.13 1/4-cents at $5.13 3/4.
December corn closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Friday following a strong export sales report this week and this month's sharp decline in the US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $4.81. Second support is the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2.
September wheat closed up $0.21 3/4-cents at $6.61 1/2.
September wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $6.22. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4.
September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.23-cents at $8.29.
September Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above Wednesday's high crossing at $8.27 3/4 has tempered the near-term bearish outlook. If September renews the decline off June's high, the July 3rd low crossing at $7.87 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $8.55 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. First support is the July 3rd low crossing at $7.87 1/4. Second support is the June 14th low crossing at $7.76 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.22 1/2-cents crossing at $8.84 1/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off this month's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $8.94 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at $8.85. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.94 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.50 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $8.07 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.01-cents at $13.70 3/4.
November soybeans closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off the June 28th low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.31 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 3rd high crossing at $13.91 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.31 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.58.
December soybean meal closed up $1.10 at $401.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $415.20 are needed to renew the rally off June's low. If December renews the decline off June's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $415.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. First support is the July 7th low crossing at $384.70. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60.
December soybean oil closed down 51-pts. at 60.76.
December soybean oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 61.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.92 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 61.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.78.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $0.53 at $95.98.
August hogs closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $100.14. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $93.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.76.
August cattle closed up $3.28 at $180.18.
August cattle closed sharply higher on Friday and posted a new high close for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $174.32 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $181.18. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $174.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $169.43.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.45 at $246.45.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $240.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $251.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $240.38. Second support is the June 27th gap crossing at $235.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.48. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.54. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.36 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 34.29 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 78.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 84.30 is the next upside target.
Thanks, tallpine!
The weather maps tonight or even Saturday won't make much difference next week.
The latest models WILL count on Saturday NIght and especially Sunday for Sunday Night. Even those won't matter anymore a couple of days later if they looks different then.
This was the low skill weeks 3-4 after the market closed.
Like Larry once said a couple of years ago..........for entertainment purposes (-:
In this case, I agree strongly.
NOAA is basing this forecast mostly on the El Nino Analog and long term trends for this time frame. We have potential problems that might interfere strongly with that.
1. DRY SOILS!. There will be less evaporation in an environment that will have a hard time generating enough moisture to generate thunderstorms in northwest flow. They really missed considering this key factor.
2. Unusually cool water along the West Coast. During El Nino's the water is normally warm in that region. This could interfere with the El Nino signal.
3. Really warm water in the Atlantic. This may also be interfering with the normal Bermuda High that pumps moisture into the Midwest which has been absent this Summer. During the Dust Bowl years, it's thought that very warm temps in the Atlantic were a key factor.
4. On other other hand, if the week 2 trough on some models in the Great Lakes (on some models) deepens in week 3, then this forecast has a better chance to verify. They do mention the week 2 troughing. That part makes sense to support this forecast.
5. The weeks 3-4 forecasts below would be pretty bearish if it happens but could turn out hot/dry and would not be a shocker because of points 1-3 above..........that have me WARMER AND DRIER than this NWS forecast for those reasons.
