East Pacific Tropics coming alive!
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Started by metmike - Aug. 4, 2018, 8:42 p.m.

There is alot of action going on in the East Pacific right now that is going to reek havoc for predicting weather, downstream in North America. 


Nothing worth noting in the Atlantic basin right now

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5


Something going on later next week in the Central Pacific(where they are called typhoons)  Hurricane Hector in the East Pacific is going to move into the Central Pacific next week). 

Hurricane Hector will track south of the Hawaiian Islands on Wednesday as a minimal hurricane......probably some tropical storm winds and big waves there.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/TWO.php?basin=cpas&fdays=5


There is alot of action in the Eastern Pacific(where they are called hurricanes). Within 48 hours, we will likely have at least 3 cyclones at the same time at around the same latitude.

The map below is constantly updated, even though this particular post was made late last week:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

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By metmike - Aug. 4, 2018, 8:45 p.m.
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Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names

We have Hector right now. Ileana and John are developing at the moment. 


      

Tropical cyclones are named based on the basin of origin. Thus is a tropical cyclone begins its life cycle in the Eastern Pacific, it will be given a name from the "Eastern Pacific Names" list. When a tropical cyclone has its origins in the Central Pacific, a "Central Pacific Name" is then assigned.

                                                            

Eastern North Pacific Names:
                   
2018
Aletta
Bud
Carlotta
Daniel
Emilia
Fabio
Gilma
Hector
Ileana
John
Kristy
Lane
Miriam
Norman
Olivia
Paul
Rosa
Sergio
Tara
Vicente
Willa
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
        
                   
2019
Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Manuel
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina
York
Zelda
        
                   
2020
Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odile
Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
        
                   
2021
Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda
        
                   
2022
Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Ivette
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke
        
                   
2023
Adrian
Beatriz
Calvin
Dora
Eugene
Fernanda
Greg
Hilary
Irwin
Jova
Kenneth
Lidia
Max
Norma
Otis
Pilar
Ramon
Selma
Todd
Veronica
Wiley
Xina
York
Zelda
        
        These lists  are also re-cycled every six years (the 2018 list will be used again in 2024).      
By MarkB - Aug. 5, 2018, 2:36 a.m.
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From the research that I have been able to aquire, atmospheric density and height have changed in the past few years. And also the protection from UV rays from the sun have lessoned. Thereby enhancing not only evaporation from the oceans, but also increasing the affects from the sun's rays, due to magnification from the increased water vapor. And while some are still naive enough to believe that this is CO2 based and totally antropogenically caused, I am not one of them. There are more factors involved.

By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 5:25 p.m.
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Mark,

There is definitely alot that we don't understand about how the sun effects our weather/climate. Much of the climate change in the past probably occurred from changes in the sun...........and we can't say exactly how it proceeded.


In this current age, we have incredible technology and can measure all sorts of things related to solar output. The current very weak solar cycle(previous one was the weakest in 100 years..............will this one be weaker?) may help us to understand effects, if any that result from the solar state which coincides with very low sunspot numbers.

One thing that we can't do is separate out the fingerprint of natural warming/cooling from man made warming/cooling.

We understand the physics of CO2 and how it effects atmospheric long wave radiation.........also known as the heat which is radiated out after the sun has warmed the surface and atmosphere with the more powerful short wave radiation.

 Increasing CO2 DOES cause the atmosphere to be warmer. This is fundamental physics and meteorology 101. However, the amount of warming in excess of the small amount coming from the increasing CO2 is just a theory. Global climate models magnify the warming by as much as 3 times by using H2O as a positive feedback amplifier, again, based on a speculative theory..................which so far, has been too warm. It is warming but slower than the alarming rate suggested by people that want us to be alarmed. 

There are no equations in the global climate models to account for natural cycles or changes in the sun. 

There is also very little discussion that gives weight to the many benefits...............for instance, we are feeding over 1 billion more people on the planet because of the best weather/climate and CO2 levels in over 1,000 years.


Why would this not matter in the discussion if you are being open minded/objective?



By metmike - Aug. 5, 2018, 5:28 p.m.
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We have tropical storm Ileana, with tropical storm John coming very soon. 



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2018, 1:40 p.m.
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Tropical storm...................soon to be STRONG hurricane John has been named and is strengthening in the Eastern Pacific. It/he poses no threat except for messing up the conditions in the Pacific Ocean that models use for initial conditions in order to feed them into the equations for predicting weather. 


Which makes the weather downstream in the US, less predictable, especially in week 2.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/061522.shtml?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?cone#contents

    

cone graphic

By metmike - Aug. 6, 2018, 5:20 p.m.
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John is now a hurricane!

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2018, 4:03 p.m.
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Review of tropics below:  


Nothing worth noting in the Atlantic basin right now.............. just very weak tropical storm Debby

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5


In  the Central Pacific, Hector will track just  south of the big island early Thursday. 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/TWO.php?basin=cpas&fdays=5


There was alot of action in the Eastern Pacific(where they are called hurricanes). Things are becoming more quiet.

The map below is constantly updated, even though this particular post was made late last week:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5