KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, July 3, 2023  

9:45 AM ET. June US Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 48.4)

10:00 AM ET. June ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 46.9)

                       Prices Idx (previous 44.2)

                       Employment Idx (previous 51.4)

                       Inventories (previous 45.8)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 42.6)

                       Production Idx (previous 51.1)

10:00 AM ET. May Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

                       New Construction (previous +1.2%)

                       Residential Construction

11:00 AM ET. June Global Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.6)

1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day

Tuesday, July 4, 2023   

  N/A               U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed

Wednesday, July 5, 2023  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 216.1)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +3.0%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 170.3)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.8%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 439.2)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.3%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.6%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.2%)

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

                       Durable Goods, M/M%

10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.7)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 34.5)

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast

4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.4M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.9M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 14,853.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the June 16^th high crossing at 15,475.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 14,853.50. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 14,420.00.  

The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 4368.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4493.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline crossing at 4505.40. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 4368.50. Second support is the June 8^th low crossing at 4305.75.

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. Closes above 50-day moving average crossing at 128-22 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-22. Second resistance is the June 1^st high crossing at 129-16. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19.  

September T-notes were lower overnight as it extends last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 110.275 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.025 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 20^th high crossing at 113.170. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.153. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 111.243. Second support is March's low crossing at 110.275.

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

ENERGIES:Augustcrude oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.57 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the June 12^th low crossing at $66.96 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $64.41. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.57. Second resistance is the June 5^th high crossing at $75.50. First support is the June 12^th low crossing at $66.96. Second support is the May low crossing at $64.41.    

August heating oil was slightly lower overnight and set sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 2.6616 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off June's high, the June 12^th low crossing at 2.2876 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 16^th high crossing at 2.5081. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 2.6616. First support is the June 12^th low crossing at 2.2876. Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at 2.2301.

August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6394 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4465 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.5766. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6394. First support is the June 12^th low crossing at $2.3901. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at $2.3394.        

August natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.558 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the rally off June's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.936. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.558. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.244.

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 22^nd low crossing at $101.485 the May 31^st high crossing at $104.250 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.347 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 31^st high crossing at $104.250. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.932.First support is the June 22^nd low crossing at $101.485. Second support is May's low crossing at $100.340.

The September Euro was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.08760 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $1.11710 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at $1.10615. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1.11710. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.08760. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.

The September British Pound was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. If September extends the decline off the June 22^nd high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2567 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at 1.2874. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2567. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2390.      

The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 23^rd low crossing at 1.11915 would mark a potential downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.14920 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 16^th high crossing at 1.13410. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.14920. First support is the June 23^rd low crossing at 1.11915. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.10920. Third support is May's low crossing at 1.10700.

The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off the May 26^th low, the September 12^th, 2022 high crossing at $77.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $76.28. Second resistance is the September-12^th, 2022 high crossing at $77.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.49. Second support is 50-day moving average crossing at $74.68.

The September Japanese Yen was slightly lower in overnight trading. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the March's high, the October 21^st -2022 low crossing at 0.069270 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071560 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.070557. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071560. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.069755. Second support is the October 21^st -2022 low crossing at 0.069270. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

Precious Metals: Augustgold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1950.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1950.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1988.90. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1842.60.  

September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $21.982 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.577 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.577. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $24.308. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 21.982. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 21.233.    

September copper was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the June 22^nd high. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8020 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off the June 22^nd high, the May 31^st low crossing at 3.6380 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is the May 31^st low crossing at 3.6380. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.  

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

Grains: December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the huge decline off the June 21^st high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off the June 21^st high, the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.64 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.56 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $4.88 3/4. Second support is the September 2022 low crossing at $4.62 1/2.

September wheat was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off the June 26^th high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the June 8^th low crossing at $6.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.76 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.03. First support is the June 8^th low crossing at $6.23 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.87 3/4. 

September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the June 22^nd high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the June 14^th low crossing at $7.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at $8.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is the June 14^th low crossing at $7.76 3/4. Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at $7.61 3/4. 

September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the June 22^nd high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the June 22^nd high, the June 14^th low crossing at $8.01 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.49 1/4. Second resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at $8.94 1/2. First support is the June 14^th low crossing at $8.01 1/4. Second support is the June 8^th low crossing at $7.92 3/4.      

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains " 

November soybeans were sharply higher overnight and has renewed the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. Second resistance is the December 2022 high crossing at $14.27 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.75.

December soybean meal was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off the June 29^th low.  Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $387.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the June 21^st high crossing at $432.60. First support is the June 29^th low crossing at $374.60. Second support is the June 14^th low crossing at $372.80. 

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the February 22^nd high crossing at 60.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the February 22^nd high crossing at 60.52. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 61.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.28.