KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 3, 2023
9:45 AM ET. June US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 48.4)
10:00 AM ET. June ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 46.9)
Prices Idx (previous 44.2)
Employment Idx (previous 51.4)
Inventories (previous 45.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 42.6)
Production Idx (previous 51.1)
10:00 AM ET. May Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +1.2%)
Residential Construction
11:00 AM ET. June Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.6)
1:00 PM ET. U.S. financial markets close early for Independence Day
Tuesday, July 4, 2023
N/A U.S. Independence Day. Financial markets closed
Wednesday, July 5, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 216.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +3.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 170.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 439.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +3.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.7)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 34.5)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow gapped up and closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the rally off May's low, the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,624.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 34,588.68. Second resistance is the December-2022 high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,624.80. Second support is the June 6th low crossing at 33,399.69.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September resumes this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,011.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 15,475.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15,957.86. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,011.81. Second support is June's low crossing at 14,420.00.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4396.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4493.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4505.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4396.75. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at 4305.75.
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September T-bonds closed up 31/32's at 127-03.
September T-bonds closed higher on Friday as it extends June's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 124-19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-25. Second resistance is the May 11th high crossing at 132-13. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at 125-30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March- April rally crossing at 124-19.
September T-notes closed up 65-pts. at 112.105.
September T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at 110.275 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.056 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 13th high crossing at 114.000. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 111.243. Second support is March's low crossing at 110.275.
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August crude oil closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.68 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at $66.96 would open the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at $63.90. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $71.68. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $75.70. First support is the June 12thlow crossing at $66.96. Second support is May's low crossing at $64.41.
August heating oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 2.2878 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April 24th high crossing at 2.5349. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.6107. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $2.2876. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $2.2301.
August unleaded gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, June's high crossing at 2.5905 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 2.3901 would open the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at 2.3394. First resistance June's high crossing at 2.5905. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at 2.6394. First support is the June 12th low crossing at 2.3901. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.3394.
August Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.560 is the next downside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.828. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.560. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.244.
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The September Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low May's high crossing at 104.205 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 100.340 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 102.430. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 101.485. Second support is May's low crossing at 100.340.
The September Euro closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09008 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.11710. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10615. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.11710. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09008. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.07025.
The September British Pound closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2563 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.2874. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2563. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2390.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 1.14920 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 1.11790 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.13410. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.14920. First support is today's low crossing at 1.11790. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.10700. Third support is the 38% retracement level of 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.010197.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the September 12th high crossing at 77.11 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the September 12th high crossing at 77.11. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.44. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.66.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071698 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071698. Second resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 0.073430. First support is today's low crossing at 0.069755. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 0.069270.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1952.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1952.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1991.10. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1911.40. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.
July silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.415 would signal that a low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.415. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,150. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 22.140. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May rally crossing at 21.708.
September copper closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, June's low crossing at 3.6600 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.8217 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is June's low crossing at 3.6600. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.33 1/4-cents at $4.96 3/4.
December corn closed sharply lower on Friday following today's bearish planted acreage report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $4.90 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.58 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.58 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.74. First support is May's low crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4.
September wheat closed down $0.16 1/2-cents at $6.51.
September wheat closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.56 thereby opening the door for additional weakness into early-July. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the June 8th low crossing at $6.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.07 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $6.46. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $6.23 1/4.
September Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at $8.00.
September Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the June 14th low crossing at $7.76 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.38 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is the June 14th low crossing at $7.76 3/4. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.61 3/4.
September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.08 1/2-cents crossing at $8.17.
September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends week's decline, the June 14th low crossing at $8.01 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.52 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.94 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $9.10 1/2. First support is the June 14th low crossing at $8.01 1/4. Second support is the June 7th low crossing at $7.92 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.77 1/2-cents at $13.43 1/4.
November soybeans closed sharply higher on Friday in response to a bullish quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage report. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends today's rally, the June high crossing at $13.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.44 1/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $13.78. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $14.02. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.44 1/4. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $11.67.
December soybean meal closed up $16.80 at $397.30.
December soybean meal closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $399.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the June 8th low crossing at $362.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $399.20. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $438.90. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $362.40.
December soybean oil closed up 400-pts. at 58.97.
December soybean oil closed limit up on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 60.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 59.49. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 60.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.13.
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August hogs closed up $0.15 at $92.48.
August hogs closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $95.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $95.45. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $100.14. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.05. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $81.30.
August cattle closed up $2.43 at $176.93.
August cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at $178.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $172.15 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $178.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $172.15. Second support is the June 21st low crossing at $168.10.
August Feeder cattle closed up $4.93 at $247.30.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at $235.25 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $248.08. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Tuesday's gap crossing at $235.25. Second support is June's low crossing at $226.70.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.49 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $16.79. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.49. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20.
September cocoa closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 34.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.94 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Friday due to short covering ahead of the July 4th holiday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-April rally crossing at 21.34 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.76 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, the November 28th -2022 low crossing at 74.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks, tallpine.
historic day in the bean/corn spread. See other thread on that.