KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, May 30, 2023
9:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. March U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. March S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.4%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.4%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
10:00 AM ET. May Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 101.3)
Expectation Idx (previous 68.1)
Present Situation Idx (previous 151.1)
10:30 AM ET. May Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -23.4)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 0.9)
Wednesday, May 31, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 205)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -4.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 158.3)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 443)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.4%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)
9:45 AM ET. May Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 48.6)
10:00 AM ET. April Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. April Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
3:00 PM ET. April Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)
Thursday, June 1, 2023
7:30 AM ET. May Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -25%)
8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +296000)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 229K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1794000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Productivity and Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (previous +1.7%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +3.2%)
9:45 AM ET. May US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 50.2)
10:00 AM ET. April Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +0.3%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. May ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 47.1)
Prices Idx (previous 53.2)
Employment Idx (previous 50.2)
Inventories (previous 46.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 45.7)
Production Idx (previous 48.9)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2336B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +96B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 455.168M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 216.277M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.053M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 105.672M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.561M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.701M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.143M)
11:00 AM ET. May Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.6)
12:00 PM ET. May Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:00 PM ET. May Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, June 2, 2023
8:30 PM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 PM ET. May U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +253K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.36)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.16)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.48%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.45%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +23K)
Private Payroll (previous +230K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.6%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
N/A ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,801.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,597.58 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,801.49. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at 15,407.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,597.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,269.66.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 4244.00 would open the door for a possible test of the August-2022 high crossing at 4382.75. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4157.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4244.00. Second resistance August's high crossing at 4382.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4180.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4157.54.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 124-11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127-04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-00. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 124-11. Second support is March's low crossing at 122-22.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 111.165 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 113.250 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 113.250. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.196. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 112.157. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 111.165.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Julycrude oil was lower overnight as it extends May's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 15th low crossing at $69.39 would mark a downside breakout of May's trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.62 would open the door for a possible test of the April 28th high crossing at $76.74. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.62. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $76.74. First support is the May 15th low crossing at $69.39. Second support is the March 24th low crossing at $67.04.
July heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends May's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 15th low crossing at 2.2739 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4523 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4523. Second resistance is the April 24th high crossing at $2.5332. First support is the May 15th low crossing at 2.2739. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.1550.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6308 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $2.4700 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6308. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5276. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4600.
July natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 2.233 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.568 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 19th high crossing at 2.816. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.189. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.338. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at 2.233.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 15th high crossing at $104.720 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.605 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $104.720. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $105.309.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $103.593. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.605.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.05914 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08968 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.07977. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08968. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.05914. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.04252.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. If June extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.2293 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2497 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2497. Second resistance is the May 10th high crossing at 1.2692. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2293. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.2138.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.09640 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.11990 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.11990. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.13940. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10794. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.09640.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.09 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.09. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $75.18. First support is April's low crossing at $73.23. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.069908 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073396 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073396. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.074912. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.071337. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.069908.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Augustgold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1941.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2020.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2020.90. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at $2102.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1941.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1892.30.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $22.541 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.477 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.477. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $26.435. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $22.541. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $21.705.
July copper was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7501 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4683 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7501. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9140. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4683. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.3261.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.78 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4. Second resistance is May's highcrossing at $6.47 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.83 3/4. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.78 1/2.
July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.61 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.61 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.94 1/4. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of this month's rally crossing at $7.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.38 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.38 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.18 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this month's rally crossing at $8.05 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this month's rally crossing at $7.81 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $7.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.27 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.45. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $7.93. Second support is the May 3rd low crossing at $7.69.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight as they extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the July 22nd 2022 low crossing at $12.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.31 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.72 1/4. First support is the July 22nd 2022 low crossing at $12.99. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.94 3/4.
July soybean meal were lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $388.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.90. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $436.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $395.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $388.80.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.94 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.57. If July resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 40.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.57. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 40.19.
Thanks tallpine. I’ll try to update weather models and crop info today.
crop/planting comes out at 3pm.
planting will be ahead. The first corn rating of the season might be out.