KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 3, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 216.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +3.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 169.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 457.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +1.7%)
8:15 AM ET. April ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +145000)
9:45 AM ET. April US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.6)
10:00 AM ET. April ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (previous 51.2)
Business Activity Idx (previous 55.4)
Prices Idx (previous 59.5)
Employment Idx (previous 51.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:00 AM ET. March Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 460.914M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.054M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 221.136M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.408M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.513M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.577M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.208M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.891M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 5.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 4.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 11)
FOMC Vote Against Action
Discount Rate (previous 5.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, May 4, 2023
7:30 AM ET. April Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +15%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Productivity and Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +3.0%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -70.54B)
Exports (USD) (previous 251.15B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -2.7%)
Imports (USD) (previous 321.69B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 230K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1858000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -3K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2009B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +79B)
11:00 AM ET. April Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.6)
12:00 PM ET. April Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, May 5, 2023
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +236K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.18)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.27%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.4)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +47K)
Private Payroll (previous +189K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.6%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
11:00 AM ET. April Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
3:00 PM ET. March Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +15.3B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's loss. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,116.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the April 4th high crossing at 13,348.75 would renew this year's rally. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 13,370.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2022's decline crossing at 13,634.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,116.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,783.16.
The June S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4068.95 would confirm that an important top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into early-May. If June resumes the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at 4244.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4206.25. Second resistance February's high crossing at 4244.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4068.95. Second support is the March 28th low crossing at 3980.75.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the April 26th high crossing at 132-21 would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 134-14. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 129-02 would mark a downside breakout of the March-April trading range thereby opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 26th high crossing at 132-21. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 134-14. First support is Monday's low crossing at 129-02. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 128-08.
June T-notes was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the April 12th high crossing at 116.080 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.078 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the April 12th high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 116.300. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.078. Second support is April's low crossing at 113.305.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Junecrude oil was sharply lower for the second trading session overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $66.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $75.38. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.24. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $69.26. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $66.99.
June heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline to a new low for the year. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5044 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.3931. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5045. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.1217. Second support is the the November-29, 2021 low crossing at 1.9476.
June unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is still possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $2.3261 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5943 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.5204. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5943. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $2.3919. Second support is March's low crossing at $2.3261.
June natural gas was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.589 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.589. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the December-April decline crossing at 2.955. First support is the April 14th low crossing at 2.143. Second support is the September-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 100.345 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 102.651 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.651. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 103.594. First support is the April 14thlow crossing at 100.420. Second support is February's low crossing at 100.345.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.12051 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10421 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08722. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1.11290. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.12051. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10142. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.08722.
The June British Pound was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2470 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off the March 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2599. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2784. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2470. Second support is the April 10th low crossing at 1.2364.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off the March low, the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1.11770 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.13137. Second resistance is the May-2021 high crossing at 1.14120. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.11770. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10469.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.12. Second resistance is the April 4th high crossing at $74.68. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $72.66.
The June Japanese Yen was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075578 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the March's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075578. Second resistance is the April 13th high crossing at 0.076475. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.073055. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.072908.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Junegold was slightly higher overnight as it extends the March-April trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off the April 13th high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1960.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is April 13th high crossing at $2063.40. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $2097.20. First support is the April 3rd low crossing at $1965.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1960.20.
July silver was lower overnight following Monday's downside reversal, which suggest that a double top with April's high has likely been posted. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. However, stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the March-2022 high crossing at $27.288 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $24.735 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at $26.435. Second resistance is the March-2022 high crossing at $24.288. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $24.735. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.540.
July copper was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.7645 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0177 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9857. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0177. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.8165. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-January rally crossing at 3.7645.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends April's decline, the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.96 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.96. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.13 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4.
July wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.66. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.17. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the February-2022 low crossing at $7.45 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.83 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 3/4. First support is Tuesday low crossing at $7.36 1/4. Second support is the January-2022 low crossing at $7.28 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at $7.50 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.11 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.41. First support is the overnight low crossing at $7.70 3/4. Second support is moving average support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.50 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's key reversal down. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $14.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing $14.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.49 1/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $13.98 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $13.83 3/4.
July soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $444.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $433.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $444.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $422.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $411.90.
July soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 52.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.50. First support is last-Friday low crossing at 50.57. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42.
Thanks very much tallpine!
Great to read you again!