Exports+ more May 1, 2023
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Started by metmike - May 1, 2023, 4:18 p.m.

U.S. export inspections were decent last week considering the expectations, especially #corn, which hit a marketing year high. The corn number is "normal" for the week versus past years. 3 corn cargoes and 3 of #soybeans were destined for #China.

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By metmike - May 1, 2023, 4:20 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

Promising # for #corn this week, but the test will be next week - we haven't seen two consecutive weeks with stronger numbers in a while. #Soybeans are staying above the really low 2021 volumes for now. #Wheat has a month left in 22/23 and is on the expected pace.

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By metmike - May 1, 2023, 4:21 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

In the week ended April 25, money managers flipped back to a net short position in CBOT #corn futures and options. Net selling was close to 65k contracts on the week, split almost evenly between exiting longs and new shorts. July futures fell another 3.7% Wed-Fri.

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CBOT #wheat dropped 8% in the week ended April 25 and money managers pushed their net short to 113k fut&opt contracts, their most bearish since Jan. 2018. Futures fell 3% Wed-Fri. Most-active futures on Friday hit their lowest level since July 2021.

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Money managers' net short in CBOT #soyoil futures & options neared 20k contracts as of April 25, their most bearish since August 2019. Funds have sold soyoil in 18 of the last 23 weeks. They also sold #soymeal through April 25 - net long of 86k is smallest since November.

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By metmike - May 1, 2023, 4:23 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

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U.S. barge traffic on the Upper Mississippi River will be halted for a bit as record snowfall is now melting. All locks and dams above Lock 17 (near New Boston, IL) will be closed for the next 3 weeks. Exports and fertilizer deliveries will be affected.

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By metmike - May 3, 2023, 12:19 a.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

Preliminary data shows #Brazil exported 14.3 million tonnes (527 mbu) of #soybeans in April, well off the 2021 high but above last year's drought-reduced effort.Jan-Apr soy exports totaled 33.5 mmt, up 3% from last year, the previous record for the period.

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#Brazil exported about 471k tonnes (18.5 mbu) of #corn in April, pretty normal for the month. Volumes should remain relatively low in May and June, but watch out for the potential explosion come July. Bumper crop is expected.

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By metmike - May 3, 2023, 10:21 p.m.
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Karen Braun

@kannbwx

Weekly net export sales for U.S. #corn have not been negative during April for at least 20 years, but last week could qualify. This is what the lowest trade estimate (-450kt) would look like. High is +600kt. #China cancelled 560kt during the week (that we know of).

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