For analogs, I'll use Dr. Philip Klotzbach's just released list of 1969, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2015 for analogs.

- The best guess I have as of now for 2023 is for El Nino peak of +1.3 to +1.9 with a best guess near +1.7.

- 1969 (18/12/3) (NS/H/MH) peaked at only +0.9, 2004 (15/9/6) at only +0.7, 2006 (10/5/2) at only +0.9, 2012 (19/10/2) at only +0.4, and 2014 (8/6/2) at only +0.7. These five average 14/8.4/3. So, I'd be inclined to lower the average of those years' numbers to make them more usable.

- 2015 peaked way up at +2.6. So, I'd be inclined to raise 2015's numbers (11/4/2) to make it more usable.

- That leaves 2002 (+1.3 peak) with 12/4/2 and 2009 (+1.6 peak) with 9/3/2 as the best analogs of this group and thus I'd be inclined to not adjust these. These two average 10.5/3.5/2.

- 2023 appears to currently be close to the warmest in the Atlantic on record and that, alone, is a somewhat bullish factor (how bullish in the face of a high end moderate or stronger Nino is the very hard to answer question) vs the listed Dr. Phil 8 analogs. My leaning is to add only a little for this as the listed years are already assuming near to warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic.

- So, I'm telling myself to lower the 5 weak ENSO years' average of 14/8.4/3, raise 2015's 11/4/2, and don't adjust 2002/2009's average of 10.5/3.5/2. The 2nd and 3rd are in conflict. From this, my best guess would be to go with 12/5/2. Then I'd adjust this slightly upward to account for the current near record warm Atlantic. That gets me to 13/6/2.

- So, my current best guess for 2023 fwiw (worth at least the price paid for this ) is for 13/6/2 NS/H/MH. Dr. Phil just happens to also be at 13/6/2. So, I like his numbers.

- I now need to come up with my ACE prediction. Dr. Phil has 100.

 ACE: the five too weak Dr. Phil ENSO years averaged 140. This needs to be adjusted downward. 2015's 81 needs to be upped. 2002/09 averaged 76 and needs no adjustment for the ENSO side of the equation......hmmmm....

- Based on the above along with a slight upward adjustment for the very warm Atlantic, I'm going with ACE of 87 as of now to go along with my first guess of 13/6/2 for NS/H/MH.