Commitments of Traders data remains severely delayed, but interesting to note that as of Feb. 7 (data released Friday), money managers' gross shorts in CBOT #corn fut&opt had reached the highest levels since early Oct. 2020. Most-active futures are down 5% since Feb. 7.
March 6: As of mid-session, CBOT May #soybeans are trading more than 50 cents above last Tuesday's low.
#China's 2023 imports are distinctly ahead of prior years after the first two months, and that also follows a record December volume. Brazil's March shipments should be extremely strong, so April arrivals in China look good.
The news is less savory for #corn. U.S. corn exports (to all destinations) in January totaled 3.2 mmt (125 mbu), some 30% below the 5yr avg. It may have gotten worse in Feb, as last month's exports could have been Feb's worst in 10 years. Decent pickup in volume last week, tho.
U.S. corn + soy exports to all destinations Sep-Jan (52.4 mmt) were lower than in the past two years but close to the five-year average - emphasizing how important China is to U.S. ag exports.
Buenos Aires grains exchange on Thursday cut its harvest estimate for #Argentina #soybeans to 29 mmt from 33.5 mmt previously. The #corn crop was reduced to 37.5 mmt from 41 mmt previously.
The Atlantic and Indian Oceans are once again filled with #soybeans coming from #Brazil - many of them on their way to #China. Record March shipments for are likely if things keep running smoothly.
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Compare that view with:Late Feb, Late Jan, March 11, 2022, March 12, 2021#Brazil's soy shipments in the last two Marches were huge - more than ever before. Feb 2022 was also massive, but exports fell off after March because of drought-related crop losses.
