INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 6, 2023, 8:01 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, February 6th, 2023

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Employment Trends Index

 

                       ETI (previous 116.31)

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 



 

 

Tuesday, February 7, 2023  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

 

                       Trade Balance (USD) (previous -61.51B)

 

                       Exports (USD) (previous 251.86B)

 

                       Exports, M/M% (previous -2.0%)

 

                       Imports (USD) (previous 313.37B)

 

                       Imports, M/M% (previous -6.4%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 42.3)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 36.2)

 



 

 

3:00 PM December Consumer Credit

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +27.9B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.3M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.7M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.5M)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. President Joe Biden delivers State of the Union address

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight weakness set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,887.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,259.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,887.24.



The March S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4034.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4092.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4034.56. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews last-week's rally, the January 19th high crossing at 132-31 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 19th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-02. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at 127-30.  



March T-notes were lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.047 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, January's high crossing at 116.080 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.047. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at 113.265. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $70.56. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.90. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. First support is January's low crossing at $72.74. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.56.



March heating oil is was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $2.7047 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1227 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0529. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1227. First support is the overnight low crossing at $2.7609. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7047. 



March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $2.2439 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5107 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5107. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is January's low crossing at $2.2439. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $2.1299.  



March natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.964 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.964. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.005. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.377. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.427 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at $105.500. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.427. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.



The March Euro was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07235 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07235. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.    



The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2302 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2027. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.  



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08509 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08509. Second support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.20. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.  



The March Japanese Yen gapped down and was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075892 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of January's low crossing at 0.074830. If March renews the rally off October's, the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 17th high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075892. Second support is January's low crossing at 0.074830.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



Aprilgold was steady to higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1863.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $1932.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1932.30. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1863.80.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. However, stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $22.028 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.673 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $24.750. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $22.028. Second support the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177.    



March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9460 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off the November 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.0260. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9460.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.74 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.64 3/4.   



March wheat was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $7.76 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing near $7.76 1/2. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.  



March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and  are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.50 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $8.92 3/4. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.50 3/4. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4. 



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.11 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $9.32. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.11 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans were low overnight as they extend the trading range of the past five-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.91 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 5th low crossing at $14.65. First resistance is January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is the June 9th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.14 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.91 3/4.

 

March soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidated some of the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $477.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $477.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $458.20. 



March soybean oil was slightly higher overnight and the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.81 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at 58.89. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50. 


Comments
By metmike - Feb. 6, 2023, 10:47 a.m.
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Thank tallpine!