KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 2, 2023
7:30 AM ET. January Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -43%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (previous +0.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +3.5%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 186K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1675000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +20K)
10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.8%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2729B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -91B)
12:00 AM ET. January Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 3, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +223K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.82)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.09)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.27%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.59%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.3)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +3K)
Private Payroll (previous +220K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 44.7)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (previous 49.6)
Business Activity Idx (previous 54.7)
Prices Idx (previous 67.6)
Employment Idx (previous 49.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 45.2)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 48.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight strength saw March test the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,624.66 and set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,715.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,624.66. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,084.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,715.80.
The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4006.96 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 4180.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4065.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4006.96.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends Wednesday's rally, the January 19th high crossing at 132-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-02 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 19th high crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129-02.
March T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 116.080 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.029 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.080. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.235. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.029. Second support is the January 10th low crossing at 113.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Marchcrude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight on spillover selling from Wednesday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the December-January uptrend line crossing near $75.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.35 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $79.35. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.66. First support is the December-January uptrend line crossing near $75.20. Second support is January's low crossing at $72.74.
March heating oil is was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at $2.8500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1952 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.1374. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1954. First support is January's low crossing at $2.8500. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7047.
March unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3684 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.5791 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.5791. Second resistance is January's highcrossing at $2.7186. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.3684. Second support is January's low crossing at $2.2439.
March natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.066 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.066. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.405. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.435. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's downside breakout of January's trading range above the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.329. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. Closes above the January 18th high crossing at $102.655 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $102.655. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.520. First support is the overnight low crossing at $100.680. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229.
The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08618 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1.10590. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.14137. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08617. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07072.
The March British Pound was steady to lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2207 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 1.2462. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-September-2022 decline crossing at 1.2764. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2296. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2207.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08425 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08425. Second support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.21. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's, the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 18th low crossing at 0.076550 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the January 17th high crossing at 0.079190. Second resistance is the May-2022 high crossing at 0.080525. First support is the January 18th low crossing at 0.076550. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075703.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low, Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1928.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1975.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1978.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1928.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1860.10.
March silver was sharply higher overnight as it extends the December-January trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938 is the next upside target. Closes below the January 23rd low crossing at $22.845 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $22.845. Second support the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.
March copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a modestly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1025 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the rally off the November 28th low, the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773 is the next upside target. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July-2022 decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.1025. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9290.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight and sets the stage for fractionally higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.72 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.64 1/4.
March wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October-November downtrend line crossing at $7.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. If March resumes this month's decline, the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October-November downtrend line crossing near $7.65. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. Second support is the September 6th 2022 low crossing at $6.93 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the January 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.92 1/4. Second resistance is the December 27th high crossing at $8.94 3/4. First support is the January 10th low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is the January 31st 2022 low crossing at $7.80.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.32. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.10. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidated some of Wednesday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.88 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 5th low crossing at $14.65. First resistance is January's high crossing at $15.48 1/2. Second resistance is the June 9th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.12 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.07 1/2.
March soybean meal was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off the January 23rd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the March-21st-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $494.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $474.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $490.30. Second resistance is the March-21st-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $494.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $474.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $454.50.
March soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 58.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.17 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.84. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 60.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50.
Thanks tallpine!