KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, January 12, 2023 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 210K; previous 204K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1694000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -24K)

8:30 AM ET. December Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. December CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.2%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.6%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +6.5%; previous +7.1%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +5.7%; previous +6.0%)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2891B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -221B)

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

2:00 PM ET. December Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

Friday, January 13, 2023 

8:30 AM ET. December Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected -0.8%; previous -0.6%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -3.3%)

10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 60.7; previous 59.1)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 58.4)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 60.2)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 22^nd low 32,573.43 would renew the decline off December's high while opening the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 31,727.05. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 33,935.11. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the December 22^nd low crossing at 32,573.43. Second support is November's low crossing at 31,727.050.  

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,480.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,059.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,480.80. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 11,839.97. First support is November's low crossing at 10,746.75. Second support is October's low crossing at 10,595.25. 

The March S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4045.36 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3735.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3980.75. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4045.36. First support is the November 9^th low crossing at 3782.75. Second support is November's low crossing at 3735.00.       

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March T-bonds closed up 1-04 pts. at 129-11. 

March T-bonds posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 132-15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 130-01. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 132-15. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 124-31. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06.

March T-notes closed up 170-pts. at 114.165.

March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 115.115 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.021 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 114.235. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 115.115. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.021. Second support is the December 30^th low crossing at 111.280. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

February crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February resumes the decline off the January 3^rd high, December's low crossing at $70.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.31. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $72.46. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.31. 

February heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1928 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If February renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $2.7517 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $3.2488. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $3.3543. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.9200. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7517.

February unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.3390 signals that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of December's high. If February renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 2.1157 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.5233. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $3.5233. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $2.2356. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.0321.   

February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the July-19^th low crossing at 3.236 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.878 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.052. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.878. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.238. Second support is the July 19^th low crossing at 3.236.

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar posted an inside day with a slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $105.500 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $105.500. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.582. First support is Monday's low crossing at $102.680. Second support is 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331.  

The March Euro closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the March 31^st high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.05290 would renew the decline off December's high and open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.05016 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.07982. Second resistance is the March 31^st high crossing at $1.09680. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.05290. Second support is the December 7^th low crossing at $1.04602. 

The March British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low but remains above broken resistance marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2142 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Friday's low, December's high crossing at 1.2229 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1698 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.2229. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2479. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1861. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1698.    

The March Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06917 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.09845. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06917. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.06915. 

The March Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday  low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the November 25^th high crossing at 75.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 16^th low crossing at 73.04 would renew the decline off November's high while opening the door for a possible test of the November 3^rd low crossing at 72.58. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 74.91. Second resistance is the November 25^thhigh crossing at 75.16. First support is the December 16^th low crossing at 73.04. Second support is the November 3^rd low crossing at 72.58.

The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 0.074830 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at 0.078135 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.077935. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.078135. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.074830. Second support is the December 15^th crossing at 0.073210.  

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February gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off November's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1861.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1831.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1890.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1915.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1831.10. Second support is the December 15^th low crossing at $1782.00.

March silver closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.523 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938. First support is the December 16^th low crossing at 22.735. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.523.  

March copper closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.2424 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8522 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.2424. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.4773. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.8522. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.7085.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed up $0.01-cents at $6.56. 

March corn closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the December 19^th low crossing at $6.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing near $6.63 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $6.85. First support is the December 19^th low crossing at $6.44. Second support is December's low crossing at $6.35.  

March wheat closed up $0.09-cents at $7.40.  

March wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the September 6^th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.90 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $7.20 1/2. Second support is the September 6^th 2021 low crossing at $6.93 1/2. 

March Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.10 1/2-cents at $8.22 1/4.

March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the January 10^th low crossing at $7.68 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $8.03 1/4. Second support is the January 10^th low crossing at $7.68 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $8.99 1/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.34 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $8.90. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed up $0.08-cents at $14.93.

March soybeans closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the December 30^th high, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $14.54 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.37 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $14.54 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at $14.31 3/4.    

March soybean meal closed up $5.70 at $474.60. 

March soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the August 29^th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $459.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $479.00. Second resistance is the August 29^th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $459.50. Second support is the December 19^th low crossing at $443.40. 

March soybean oil closed down 46-pts. At 62.11. 

March soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off the December 27^th high, the December 16^th low crossing at 61.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.47 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.47. Second resistance is the November 29^th high crossing at 72.49. First support is the December 16^th low crossing at 61.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50. 

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February hogs closed down $0.58 at $79.23. 

February hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off the December 27^th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $78.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $83.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.05. First support is today's low crossing at $78.83. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $78.47. 

February cattle closed up $0.13 at $157.88. 

February cattle closed higher on Wednesday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the monthly continuation chart crossing at $159.54 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $156.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $159.18. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the monthly continuation chart crossing at $159.54. First support is Monday's low crossing at $156.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $155.77.  

March Feeder cattle closed down $1.08 at $186.43. 

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.00 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $190.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $188.29. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $190.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.00. Second support is the December 20^th low crossing at $182.87.      

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.59. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $17.50. First support is today's low crossing at $14.21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.20. 

March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.78 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target.              

March sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target.    

March cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.03 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.31 is the next upside target.