Hopefully this meeting on Monday will clear up some of the questions surrounding #Mexico's impending ban of GMO #corn and the impact on U.S. exports. Market needs to know things like the intended coverage of the ban (i.e. to just human food, animal feed, both).
#Mexico is such a huge buyer of U.S. #corn (usually the top), so losing a large chunk of that business would be detrimental to U.S. exporters. And #China's intentions are also very much in question. Current U.S. corn sales are only 30% of the year-ago so far.
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U.S. #corn export inspections are very 2012-ish lately, tho they'll need to be more 2022-ish (at the very least) by early 2023 to have any shot at full-year targets. I don't have a #wheat inspection chart, it's time consuming, but I will make it if this tweet gets 100 likes
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#China was the top destination for U.S. #wheat exports in 1990 followed closely by the Soviet Union - both accounted for 13%. U.S. exports that year totaled 27.4 mmt, and the U.S. was the top wheat supplier at 30% of global exports. #Canada was No. 2 at 18%.
Fast forward 30 years. USA shipped 26.1 mmt of #wheat in 2020, not too far off 1990, but it was only about 14% of global exports and #2/#3 exporter. #Philippines was top destination. USA in 2022/23 is set for 10% of global exports, its smallest ever share, good for #4.
Now exclude direct gov't payments. Those have died down after peaking in 2020 due to the pandemic. In fact, those payments accounted for nearly half of net farm income in 2020 compared with 18% in 2021 and 10% in 2022, preventing a drop in net farm income from 2019 to 2020.