September exports of #soybeans from #Brazil are seen at below-average levels, but not too far below. Oct-Jan is usually Brazil's slower season as U.S. exports take the spotlight. This will be an interesting dynamic to monitor in the months ahead. Don't forget #Argentina, either.
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I don't have a similar comparison with last year, but here's a view of around the same date in 2019 and 2020. Sept BR soy exports in those years were fairly normal. These look slightly busier than the current view - which is expected.
Money managers bought CBOT #corn futures & options for an 8th straight week through Sept. 20, uncommon during U.S. harvest (though it also happened in 2020). Corn futures rose 15% in those 8 weeks. Dec closed at $6.76-3/4 per bu Friday, down 1.7% on the day.
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Money managers' bullish CBOT #soymeal views are easily record for the time of year but below 2018's all-time high. As of Sept. 20, their net long totaled 102,168 fut+opt contracts. Dec meal futures reached contract highs Thurs but settled down 1.3% Fri at $423.30/short ton.
#Argentina may produce 48 mmt of #soybeans in 2022/23 according to the Buenos Aires grains exchange, a 15.5% rise on the year. A possible increase in soy area could come at the expense of #corn, already facing sowing issues. La Nina/dryness keep soy yields at risk this year.
U.S. #ethanol production dropped to 855k BPD, the week's lowest since 2013 and down 6.5% from last year. Output rose from here in past years (except for in 2012) as the #corn harvest started coming in.
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Despite the output drop, U.S. #ethanol stocks gained nearly 1% last week. That puts implied use over the last 4 weeks below normal levels but identical with the same weeks in 2020 & 2021. Ethanol stocks are above average for the date, about even with 2018 & 2019 levels.
