metmike: To get the report, on Friday September 30, 2022 at 11 am CDT go to this link:
Analysts think Sept. 1 U.S. #corn & soy stocks will land fairly close to USDA's last 21/22 ending stock estimates (Sept. 1 stocks are corn/soy ending stocks), but they rarely come in this close. Last year the trade underestimated #soybeans by a huge margin of 82 mbu.
Analysts' guess of Sept. 1 #wheat stocks is nearly identical with last year - which was the lowest Sept. 1 since 2007. #Corn ending stocks are seen +22% YOY but otherwise lowest since 2014. #Soybeans are seen -6% YOY and lowest since 2016.
This means a stocks surprise on at least one of corn/soy would not be shocking. However, large, unexpected adjustments to the previous quarter's stocks (as were a problem in 2020) has not happened in more than a year now, so at least there's that.
Sept 1 corn/soy stocks (2021/22 ending stocks) 2) Impact of corn/soy stock survey (any changes to June 1? any changes to 2021 crop? etc) 3) Wheat production - any surprises? 4) Wheat stocks (Q1 2022/23). High/low?
5 min out from USDA: CBOT wheat +14 CBOT corn +9 CBOT soy +9
The U.S. #wheat crop comes in more than 7% below trade expectations - all classes fell short of predictions. This year's wheat harvest was basically even with year ago instead of the projected 8% rise. I don't have the stats, but this has to be one of the trade's worst misses...