KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.446M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -9.6%)
Building Permits (previous 1.674M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -1.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +11.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +11.4%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
N/A U.N. General Debate opens
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,420.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,249.98. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,420.11. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4013.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3977.95. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4013.12. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3744.72.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2013 low crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 137-28. First support is the overnight low crossing at 130-05. Second support is the December-2013 low crossing at 127-23.
December T-notes was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 114.060 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.078 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.078. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.044. First support is Friday's low crossing at 114.105. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally crossing at 111.233.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.05. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.56. First support is February 18th low crossing at $79.31. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.
November heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5327 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at $2.9170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.3733. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4561. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.0925. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 2.9170.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5696 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4498. Second resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $2.5696. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.
November Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.211. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.647 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.292. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 10.040. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.211. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.603.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.425 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the September 7thhigh crossing at $110.480. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.425. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $1.02650 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1.02650. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $0.99350. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, monthly support support crossing at 1.1340 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1890. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1374. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1340.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04147 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04147. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.02210.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.01. First support is Monday's low crossing at $74.95. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071629 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071629. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073482. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.069485. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1749.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1723.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1749.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1661.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.806 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $21.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.806. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 3.4285 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off the September 6th low, August's high crossing at 3.7835 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291. First support is the September 6th low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.67 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.33.
December wheat was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.16 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $8.77 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $7.43 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average $8.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.51. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 50-day moving average $8.81. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $9.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark a possible upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average $14.08 1/2.
December soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $417.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $440.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $417.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.70.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks very much tallpine!