KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, September 19, 2022
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 49)
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.446M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -9.6%)
Building Permits (previous 1.674M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -1.3%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +11.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +11.4%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
N/A U.N. General Debate opens
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow gapped down and closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,255.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,980.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,980.30. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 32,504.04. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,813.63. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 30,255.18.
The December NASDAQ 100 close lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,536.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's crossing at 12,987.00. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. First support is is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4060.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4060.80. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4175.00. First support is today's low crossing at 3853.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16.
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December T-bonds closed down 11-pts. at 131-02.
December T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-18. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-23. First support is today's low crossing at 130-12. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
December T-notes closed up 65-pts. at 114.225.
December T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 114.060 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.139 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.139. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.064. First support is today's low crossing at 114.105. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.060.
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October crude oil closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.02. First support is last-Thursday's lowcrossing at $81.20. Second support is the February 18th lowcrossing at $79.83.
October heating oil closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.7707 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.7050 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.7050. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0392. First support is August's low crossing at 3.1167. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.7707.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5259 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.2446 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5259. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6810. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.2890. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.2446.
October Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Friday as it renewed the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.133 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.764 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 9.238. Second resistance is the August 29th high crossing at 9.711. First support is the 50% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 7.685. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 7.133.
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The December Dollar closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.345 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $110.480. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.345. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.
The December Euro closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01947 is needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01947. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.04650. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $0.99350. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.1340 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance Monday's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1912. First support is today's low crossing at 1.1374. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1340.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.04179 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.04179. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.02210.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Friday as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 74.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.11. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.18. First support is today's low crossing at 75.15. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 74.06.
The December Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071959 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071959. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.73632. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.069485. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1752.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1752.60. Second resistance August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1661.90. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.
December silver closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the August high crossing at 21.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.787 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 21.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.787. Second support is the September 1st low crossing at 17.320.
December copper closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1315 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0590. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.00 1/4-cents at $6.77 1/4.
December corn closed fractionally lower on Friday as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.31.
December wheat closed up $0.14 3/4-cents at $8.59 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $8.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is the September 1st low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.43 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.09-cents at $9.35 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $9.58. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is September's low crossing at $8.65. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.10-cents at $9.38 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends the July-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range and would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the September 7th low crossing at $8.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is August's low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.03-cents at $14.48 1/2.
November soybeans closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.32. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $13.73.
December soybean meal closed up $4.90 at $428.00.
December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $418.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $440.70. Second resistance is long-term resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.00. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $418.30. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $409.70.
December soybean oil closed up 166-pts. at 65.96.
December soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is September's low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53.
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October hogs closed up $0.70 at $96.75.
October hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $101.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 23rd high crossing at $96.98. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $101.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $92.70. Second support is September's low crossing at $89.12.
October cattle closed down $0.05 at $145.58.
October cattle closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the August 31st low crossing at $142.28, April's high crossing at $147.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.30 would confirm that a double top with August's high has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $146.25. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $147.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $143.30. Second support is the July 29th low crossing at $141.43.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.13 at $181.05.
October Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July low crossing at $176.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $187.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $190.20. First support is July's low crossing at $176.25. Second support is the June 13th low crossing at $173.60.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the August 19th low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.72. First support is the August 19th low crossing at $20.95. Second support is August's low crossing at 20.28.
December cocoa closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends Wednesday's decline, the July 14th low crossing at 22.80 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 19th low crossing at 17.61 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 17.20. Closes above the August 15th high crossing at 18.70 would mark an upside breakout of the August-September trading range.
December cotton closed limit down on Friday as it renewed the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 101.55 would open the door for a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 96.80. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.48 would signal that a low has been posted.
Thanks very much tallpine, you do good work!