KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 24, 2022
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 279.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 724.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 236.9K)
10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 600K; previous 591K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -16.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)
10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 50.2; previous 58.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 55.2)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.3%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 63.3)
Monday, June 27, 2022
8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
10:00 AM ET. May Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 99.3)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -3.9%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -9.1%)
10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -7.3)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 18.8)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 27,601.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,773.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 31,387.84. Second resistance is the June 10th gap crossing at 32,267.78. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 29,814.73. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 27,601.58.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average 12,075.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 11,849.25. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,075.64. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,092.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 10,942.25.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 3896.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's gap crossing at 3896.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3949.05. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3642.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 27. at 136-26.
September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-06. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 141-21. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131-01. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
September T-notes closed up 200 pts. at 117.185.
September T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.118 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains and a possible test of May's high. If September renews he decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 111.233 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.118. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 114.075. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 111.233.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's downside breakout of the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.95. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $95.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $123.68. First support is the May 19th low crossing at $100.66. Second support is May's low crossing at $95.47.
August heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1396 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.4898. Second resistance is the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1396. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7594.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5462. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5462 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the May 19th low crossing at $3.2904. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8408 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.8408. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.1237. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5462. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.2904.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.149 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.535. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.891. First support is today's low crossing at 6.237. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.947 is the next downside target.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.774 would open the door for a larger-degree decline. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $105.57. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.774.
The September Euro closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06931 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes the decline, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $1.08530. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.10200. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2416 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the March-2020 low crossing at 1.1575 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2416. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2529. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 1.2484.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, May's high crossing at 1.05470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.02830 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.05155. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.05470. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.00235. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.00170.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.53 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 75.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.53. First support is May's low crossing at 76.46. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 75.79.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076034 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076034. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.077404. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073580. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended the May-June trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1874.70 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1874.70. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $1905.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.
July silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at 20.420 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.545 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 22.565. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at 23.102. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 20.845. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.420.
July copper closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.5861 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2428 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.1062. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.2428. First support is today's low crossing at 3.7230. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.5861..
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed down $0.21 1/4-cents at $7.46 3/4.
July corn closed sharply lower on Thursday as weather forecast turn bearish triggering additional long-liquidation by the funds. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Friday's high, June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.79 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $8.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2.
July wheat closed down $0.39 1/4-cents at $9.37 1/4.
July wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.61 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.31 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.61 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $9.34 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $8.73.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.34 1/4-cents at $10.05.
July Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $9.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.09 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $9.91. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $9.08.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.25 1/2-cents at $10.80 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.08 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.75 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.08 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.76. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.04.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed down $0.59 1/2 at $15.93 1/4.
July soybeans closed sharply lower on Thursday as the seasonal decline has begun in earnest. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $15.78 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.02 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.02 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $17.84. First support is May's low crossing at $15.78 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $15.60 1/2.
July soybean meal closed down $5.70 at $426.70.
July soybean meal closed lower on Thursday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at $421.60. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $408.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the April 21st high crossing at $467.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $440.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is June's low crossing at $404.00. Second support is May's low crossing at $395.00.
July soybean oil closed down 295-pts. at 67.71.
July soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 65.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.23. First support is today's low crossing at 67.26. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 65.16.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $4.65 at $103.68.
August hogs closed sharply lower on Thursday and closed below the 10-day moving average signaling that the rally off June's low has come to an end. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish with today's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at $98.65 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $110.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at $111.05. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $101.30. Second support is May's low crossing at $98.65.
August cattle closed down $1.05 at $133.88
August cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $132.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $132.45. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $174.85.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $171.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $171.47. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible. Closes above the June 9th high crossing at 23.58 would temper the bearish outlook. If September renews the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $23.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.18. First support is the June 13th low crossing at 21.90. Second support is the May 24th low crossing at 21.10.
September cocoa close lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-week's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.10 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton gapped down and closed sharply lower for the third day in a row on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 97.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Grains getting clobbered with much more rain in the forecast for week 2!