KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 25, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.51)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.35)
10:30 AM ET. April Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 8.7)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 13.2)
Tuesday, April 26, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +14.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +15.2%)
9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +17.5%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.1%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.2%)
10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 772K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.3)
10:00 AM ET. April Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 13)
Shipments Idx (previous 9)
10:00 AM ET. April Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 107.2)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 153)
1:00 PM ET. March Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Wednesday, April 27, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 374)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 254)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1023.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -7.7%)
8:30 AM ET. March Advance Economic Indicators Report
10:00 AM ET. March Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 104.9)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -4.1%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -5.4%)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:00 AM ET. March Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 413.733M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -8.02M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 232.378M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.761M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 108.735M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.664M)
Refinery Usage (previous 91.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.033M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.262M)
Thursday, April 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 184K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1417000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -58K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1268.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1700.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 264.8K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +6.9%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +6.4%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.0%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +5.0%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1450B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +53B)
11:00 AM ET. April Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 46)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 61)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 37)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 41)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, April 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +1.0%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)
9:45 AM ET. April Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 62.9)
10:00 AM ET. April University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 59.4)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 54.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 5.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 67.2)
3:00 PM ET. March Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +7.4%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 12,942.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14,344.88 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 13,851.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14,156.26. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 13,249.39. Second support is March's low crossing at 12,942.50.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4162.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4392.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4392.80. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4461.56. First support is the 75% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4227.21. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 4162.47.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the rebound off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141-03. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-08. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 138-14. Second support is the October-2018 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 136-16.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.204 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.204. Second resistance the March 31st high crossing at 123.040. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 118.080. Second support is the October-2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 117.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:June crude oil was lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle off March's high and low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible decline to test the bottom of the aforementioned triangle crossing near $93.77. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $109.20 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned triangle and could lead to a test of the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $109.20. Second resistance is the March 24th high crossing at $113.51. First support is the April 11th low crossing at $92..60. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at $90.37.
June heating oil was lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.3856 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June extends the rally off the April 7th low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.8622 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $3.7170. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $3.8622. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.3856. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.1883.
June unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0958 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.4806 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.4806. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $3.5887. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.0958. Second support is April's low crossing at $2.9649.
June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.477 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional losses near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2005-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 8.606 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.062. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 8.197. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.477. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 6.387.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off January's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $102.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.80 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $102.04. Second resistance is the March-2020 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $103.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.51.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.0671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09310 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09310. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.10639. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1.07280. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1.0671.
The June British Pound was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March 23rd high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2582 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3037 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is the April 14thhigh crossing at 1.3145. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3191. First support is the September-2020 low crossing at 1.2761. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.2582.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the March 31st high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the March-2020 low crossing at 1.0415 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0605 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0605. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0699. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0443. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 1.0415.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $78.28 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.04 would open the door for additional short covering near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $79.55. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $78.28. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $77.91.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.080098 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.078810. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.080098. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.077385. Second support is the February-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Junegold was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1887.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average $1957.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1957.70. Second is last-Monday's high crossing at $2003.00. First support is the March's low crossing at $1893.20. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022-rally crossing at $1887.60.
July silver was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $23.023 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.250 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.250. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $26.275. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $23.801. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at $23.023.
July copper was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.4556 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.7176 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.6547. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.7176. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.4556. Second support is 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 4.3362.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $8.14. Second resistance is the August-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.43 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.88 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.62.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off the March 29th low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $11.59 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $11.43 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $11.59 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.62 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.24 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.10 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $12.28. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $12.59. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.10 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.53 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the March 29th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.23 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $11.88 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.61 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.23 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower in late-overnight trading as they extend the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.40 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, February's high crossing at $17.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday high crossing at $17.34. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $17.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.49 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.40 1/4.
July soybean meal was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the April 13th low crossing at $450.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the March 29th high crossing at $473.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 29th high crossing at $473.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at $484.60. First support is the April 13th low crossing at $450.00. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at $444.30.
July soybean oil was sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the aforementioned rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 83.21. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.99.
Thanks tallpine!
Welcome to a new week!