Excessive Rainfall threat..........mostly East today.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.  Southeast/FL......new system  N.Plains. Press your cursor on the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook	Forecaster: Hart/Kerr Issued: 18/1240Z Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
Current Day 2 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0600Z Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 3 Outlook	Forecaster: Bunting Issued: 18/0731Z Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Monday....... Very comfortable Midwest, to East Coast. Blast furnace heat in the S.Plains......also Southwest.

Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest to East Coast. Still sticky along the Gulf Coast.

Heat and high humidity COMBINED.

Highs days 3-7.

Very warm to hot South.  Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains).

Record Heat West!!!!!

How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Close  to average in the Midwest to East/Coast(several cool days N.Plains/Upper Midwest).

Heat backs up to the West!  Record heat in some places and this is the hottest time of year!!

High temperature departures:

Low Temperature Departures:

 Active in the East.................a couple of perturbations/waves with surface reflections having reinforcing cold fronts.

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Here is the latest radar image:

Look at the showers rotating counterclockwise around the upper level low in the East.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Zooming in lets you really see that circulation!

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

Satellite picture.

Rains the past 24 hours.     

 Eastern Cornbelt and southeast got some. Excessive near East Coast.   

Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry.

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet!

Rains over the last week, 2 weeks, month and 2 months compared to normal.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks:

Today: Pocket of Cooler than average Midwest to East Coast..... heat  backed up West...very hot S.Plains.

In 5+ days:

Hot West!!  Below average temperatures N.Plains/ Midwest.

In 10+ days   Hot West!!!!  Below average Midwest.

Day 15  Hot West to Plains.............The pattern may be shifting and heat moving east!

Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Less than half of the members have this idea.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............new heat ridge builds.

Alot of rain C.Plains to Midwest.

Precip below:

August Forecast. Updated by the NWS on Thursday.

Very warm/hot, except for the N.Plains.

Dry Southern Plains to Southwest Cornbelt.............where soils are driest right now(there is a correlation as drought begets drought)

NWS extended forecast........for Plains/Midwest, widespread below normal temperatures......bearish for natural gas(and corn because kernel filling will be maximized). Hot out West. 

Will this pattern shift in early August?

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

Precipitation Probability

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

Precipitation Probability

We have disagreement in the models for late week 2. The GFS products, indicate (but not unanamously) troughing in the Midwest to just east will continue thru the period.

The European model weakens that trough and builds some upper level ridging as the heat ridge out West breaks down with jet stream energy coming from that direction helping to force the ridging in the East.

12z Canadian model ensembles move towards the European model, with its changes from the previous run which would represent a pattern change in early August. 

12z GFS ensembles-most still have have deep trough from Midwest and just east.

12Z Canadian ensembles have a few more with ridge building in the East, pushing the trough north

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 07, 2018 12 UTC

Just got a nice 1 inch rain roll through here ECILL

yes mother nature can be cruel...after missig rain after rain that drifted east or south east today we missed them as thry drifted west and south west...we are now about 8/10ths for July and although that's dry and hot our crops seem to be hanging in