BIG storm next(THIS) (LAST) week
34 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - April 7, 2022, 3:16 p.m.

When I get a chance later today, I'll get the ball rolling on next week's MAJOR storm.

We should have at least several dozen weather posts/updates before its over!

It will feature widespread severe weather on the warm side(including tornadoes) and blizzard/heavy snows on the cold side.

The highest risk for severe storms, including tornadoes will occur late Wednesday for southwest Indiana.

Scroll down for updates as the storm approaches!

Comments
By metmike - April 7, 2022, 3:22 p.m.
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By metmike - April 7, 2022, 5:30 p.m.
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Here's what the forecast for the storm looks like right now. It's actually the 2nd one, which organizes on Tuesday, April 12th on the map below.

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - April 7, 2022, 5:38 p.m.
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U.S. Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook

Go to the link below for the latest updated map.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php


By Jim_M - April 8, 2022, 12:16 p.m.
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First, let's hope no one gets hurt.  Secondly, the country could use any moisture it can get.  

By metmike - April 8, 2022, 12:28 p.m.
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Thanks Jim!

The Western half of the country needs rain.

The Eastern Cornbelt and to the south is much too wet(needs to dry out). We need that area to warm up also. 


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20220407.30day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - April 9, 2022, 2:52 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated constantly.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    

                                    

                                    


By metmike - April 9, 2022, 2:53 p.m.
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Winter weather link from the NWS experts:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

By metmike - April 11, 2022, 12:01 a.m.
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Weather map now.

In 24 hours and

In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                                    


By metmike - April 11, 2022, 2:02 p.m.
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Not much threat for excessive rain with this system because it will be moving so fast!

However, 1 week rain totals may be around 3 inches(unwanted) in the Southern Ohio River Valley.

Excessive rain threat(low threat).

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    


            ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                    

By metmike - April 11, 2022, 2:07 p.m.
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Latest snow forecast from the just out 12z GFS ensemble model:

Weather Model

By metmike - April 11, 2022, 2:30 p.m.
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I have a sister that likes in Bismarck. Orange is for a blizzard warning below. Heaviest snows may be northwest of Bismark.

https://www.weather.gov/bis/

Click a location below for detailed forecast.

    

    

    

Last Map Update: Mon, Apr. 11, 2022 at 1:22:49 pm CDT

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:17 a.m.
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Local weather information from the NWS in Paducah that includes the Evansville IN area of responsibility:

Local NWS for Evansville Indiana:

https://www.weather.gov/pah/



Local Radar Image




Hourly weather graph:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=38.091&lon=-87.5762&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:20 a.m.
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Latest National radar images


https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current


Static mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

 

                                   

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:21 a.m.
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  This link below provides some great data. Hit the center of the box below for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   

                                    


By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:29 a.m.
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This is what the 500mb map looks like(about the mid point in the atmosphere(not half the distance but half of the mass of the atmosphere)) . Wind speeds are in knots. 5 knots = 6 mph.

This is around 18,000 feet above the surface,  over 3.5 miles up. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

The speed max crossing the West Coast will provide the energy to strengthent the storm the next 2 days!

It will also help to increase lift and produce rotation/spin for tornadoes.



This is the 500 mb forecast for Wednesday:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:40 a.m.
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Here's a look at winds a bit higher up, at 200mb and the jet stream level on Wednesday Night.  This is around 39,000 feet up or over 7 miles above the surface. It can range from 35,000 to 41,000 feet above the ground.

The tiny 150 knot speed max in the red is 180 mph(in a large area of pink headed across TX. The stronger jet stream to the south is why one might think that the risk for tornadoes should be higher there.

However, we have a 150+ mph speed max crossing Indiana(in pink) which will  enhance the threat for tornadoes, including STRONG tornadoes.

The air ahead of and below strong jet streams is lifted greatly and can become very unstable. As that air rises and cools, water vapor condenses out because cooler air has less capacity to hold moisture.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:50 a.m.
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http://www.tornadoproject.com/cellar/fscale.htm


You will note that 76%(most) of tornadoes are "WEAK" tornadoes. They rarely kill people.

When you get to F2 and F3 tornadoes, they become deadly. This current situation is capable of producing that kind of tornado.

F4 and F5 tornadoes are very rare but kill the majority(67%) of people.

pie chart showing percent of  all tornadoes by Fujita Scale class

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

pie chart showing percentage of tornado related deaths by Fujita Scale class

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 12:55 a.m.
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By metmike - April 12, 2022, 11:57 a.m.
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Showtime to track this storm in real time!

Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#






https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20




                                    

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 11:58 a.m.
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Latest National radar images


https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current


Static mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

 

                                   


            This link below provides some great data. Hit the center of the box below for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast 
By metmike - April 12, 2022, 1:31 p.m.
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Current Hazards at the link below.

Scroll down for more!

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

By metmike - April 12, 2022, 1:35 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated constantly.

Go to link for forecast discussions. Scroll down for the last update with MODERATE risk for Wednesday.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook          
By metmike - April 12, 2022, 1:38 p.m.
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The Severe Storms forecast center JUST updated their day 2 outlook(Wednesday) a few minutes ago to put Evansville in the MODERATE risk.

Get their forecast discussion/philosophy at the link below:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html


By metmike - April 12, 2022, 4 p.m.
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The upgrade to moderate was based on the damaging wind threat. The tornado threat still at 10% for the northern portion of that area. 


HIGH WIND THREAT 45% is pretty high!


By metmike - April 13, 2022, 11:03 a.m.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

SPC Products Overview


Read the verbiage of their forecast discussion at the link below:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it   appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially   across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of   the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a   damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the   afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The   potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios   including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within   an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a   dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60   kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across   Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially   widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially   through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours.
By metmike - April 13, 2022, 11:14 a.m.
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Threat for tornadoes at 10% (within 25 miles of any location in that shaded area) potential for STRONG tornadoes of 150 mph+.


Threat below for high winds 45%(within 25 miles of any location in that shaded area). Potential for gusts of 70 mph+


This is how they define the categories/numbers:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

By metmike - April 13, 2022, 11:21 a.m.
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By Jim_M - April 13, 2022, 4:19 p.m.
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Thanks for the update Mike!

By metmike - April 13, 2022, 4:42 p.m.
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YW Jim!

It's only a tiny change but it's a BIG one if you live in SW Indiana.

They adjusted the moderate risk zone farther south, so it's south of the Ohio River in KY now.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

SPC Products Overview

By metmike - April 13, 2022, 5:45 p.m.
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Latest local watches, warnings and advisories:

Go to this link to see what all the colors are. The highest risk, as we mentioned earlier is staying to our south.

https://www.weather.gov/pah/


By metmike - April 13, 2022, 5:50 p.m.
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While in ND, they are seeing this:

Blizzard pulverizing North Dakota: Roads closed, crazy snow totals

Impossible travel conditions across most of the state on Wednesday.

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-weather/blizzard-pulverizing-north-dakota-roads-closed-crazy-snow-totals

6 FOOT SNOW DRIFT INSANITY NORTH DAKOTA BLIZZARD April 13th 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yRGqjjHTt4

By metmike - April 13, 2022, 7:25 p.m.
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Severe threat is over for our area of southwest IN!

By metmike - April 17, 2022, 11:58 a.m.
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Severe weather from last Wednesday's updated storm outbreak report.

 The NWS surveys damage and continues to get reports for several days after the severe events, that they did not have initially after the severe weather events.

Mostly high wind reports (412) compared to 34 tornadoes and 14 hail reports. Total of 460.

The area did come pretty close to lining up with the moderate risk area that was mainy used because of a 45% risk of damaging winds within 25 miles of the shaded area.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

220413_rpts Reports Graphic


+++++++++++++++++++

Though they over forecast the risk for tornadoes (we're glad the weather under performed there-better to at least be prepared), they pretty much nailed the maps on high winds:

As noted above and here(this map was adjusted south by them on Wednesday morning, BEFORE the outbreak which used the latest data): https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83112/#83276

Threat below for high winds 45%(within 25 miles of any location in that shaded area). Potential for gusts of 70 mph+

By metmike - April 20, 2022, 12:53 p.m.
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Not as much risk for severe weather with the next few systems.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/                                

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Moore
Issued: 20/1617Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Kerr
Issued: 20/1026Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Kerr
Issued: 20/0726Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook