KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, March 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3.1)
Employment Idx (previous 23.1)
New Orders Idx (previous 1.4)
Prices Received (previous 54.1)
8:30 AM ET. February PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)
4:00 PM ET. January Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.0M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.5M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, March 16, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 502.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +8.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 267.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +8.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1829.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +8.5%)
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +3.8%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +3.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +3.8%)
8:30 AM ET. February Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +2%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +1.4%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +9.5%)
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +2.1%)
10:00 AM ET. March NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 82)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 411.562M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.863M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 244.606M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.405M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 113.874M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.23M)
Refinery Usage (previous 89.3%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.21M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.38M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 0.9%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 1.6%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 2.1%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 9)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 0.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, March 17, 2022
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 16.0)
Prices Paid (previous 69.3)
Employment (previous 32.3)
New Orders (previous 14.2)
Prices Received (previous 49.8)
Delivery Times (previous 23.0)
Inventories (previous 4.0)
Shipments (previous 13.4)
8:30 AM ET. February New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.638M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -4.1%)
Building Permits (previous 1.899M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 227K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +11K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1494000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +25K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2166.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3099.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 370.2K)
9:15 AM ET. February Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 77.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +1)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1519B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -124B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, March 18, 2022
10:00 AM ET. January Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 6.5M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +6.7%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 1.6)
Median Price (USD) (previous 350300)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +15.4%)
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.6)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it is renewing the decline off December's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,826.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,826.64. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 14,389.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 12,942.50. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50.
The June S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4293.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4293.41. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 4410.50. First support is February's low crossing at 4094.26. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off Monday's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-03. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 160-12. First support is February's low crossing at 151-29. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 150-06.
June T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.085 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.204. Second resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.085. First support is the overnight low crossing at 124.180. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 123.084.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $107.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $107.06. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $126.42. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.49.
May heating oil was lower in late-overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0851 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.4002 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.4002. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $4.3138. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0851. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7570.
May unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0742 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2953 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.2953. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.8075. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0744. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7827.
May Henry natural gas was lower overnight and is poised to resume the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.609 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 5.199. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.609. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.286.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $97.79. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.45.
The June Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.73 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $111.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.97. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2894is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3319 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3144. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3319. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.2994. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2894.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0896 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0817. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0857. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0666. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 1.0564.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.76. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at $79.44. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $77.51. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.19.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.086952 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.086244. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.086952. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.084605. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.082304.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1936.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, the August-2020 low crossing at $2117.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2061.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high crossing at $2117.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1936.50. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at $1878.60.
May silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.989 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $28.134 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $27.495. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $28.134. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.989. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $23.905.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6684 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.6684. Second resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 5.0395. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5139. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight due to spillover weakness from the energy markets. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.08 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $7.28 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.08 1/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last-week's decline, the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.11 1/2 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $11.60. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.51 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.11 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.23 1/2 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.14 1/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.43 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans was sharply lower overnight and is testing the lower boundary of the trading range of the past two weeks crossing at $16.34 1/2. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is trading range support crossing at $16.34 1/2. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.
May soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $459.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $491.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $459.30. Second resistance is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70.
May soybean oil was lower overnight due to spillover weakness from Monday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at 68.22.
Thanks tallpine!