INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 11, 2022, 8:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, March 11, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Services

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 62.0; previous 61.7)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 57.4)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.5)

 



 

 

Monday, March 14, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January State Employment and Unemployment

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,969.81 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,969.81. Second resistance is the March 3rd high crossing at 14,389.00. First support is February's low crossing at 13,031.00. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at 12,727.50.



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4322.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4322.05. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 4410.50. First support is February's low crossing at 4094.26. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4018.92. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off Monday's high, the February 25th low crossing at 153-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 157-01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 157-01. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 160-12. First support is the February 25th low crossing at 153-10. Second support is February's low crossing at 151-29.



June T-notes was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, February's low crossing at 125.145 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.154 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.154. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the December-February decline crossing at 129.043. First support is the February 25th low crossing at 125.290. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.145.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:May crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $147.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $126.42. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $147.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $98.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.52.



May heating oil was higher in late-overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0570 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally above the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1586, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $4.3138. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0558. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7271. 



May unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0506 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the all-time high posted in July-2008 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1140 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.8075. Second resistance is the July-2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $4.1140. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0506. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7532.    



May Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.552 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.199. Second resistance is last-November's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 5.562. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.552. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.238.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $99.47. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $100.26. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $98.16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.14.



The June Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.13 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.13. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.15. First support is Monday's low crossing at $108.46. Second support is the March-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $106.71.



The June British Pound was slightly higher in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2894is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3372 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3219. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3372. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.3045. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the weekly chart crossing at 1.2894.



The June Swiss Franc was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.0762 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0902 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at 1.0972. Second resistance is the January 21st high crossing at 1.1027. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0770. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.0762.  

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.79 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at $77.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $78.79. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $77.51. Second support is December's low crossing at $77.19. 



The June Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight and has broken out to the downside of the February-March trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.087047 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 24th high crossing at 0.087590. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.088310. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.085605. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.084932.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Aprilgold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1927.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off January's low, the August-2020 low crossing at $2117.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $2061.00. Second resistance is the August-2020 high crossing at $2117.10. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1968.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1927.70.



May silver was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.840 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $28.134 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $27.495. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at $28.134. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.678. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.839.   



May copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5115 is the next downside target. If May renews this year's rally above last-May's high crossing at 4.8400, which marks the upper boundary of 2021-2022-trading range, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.0395. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.5115. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at 4.4470.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off September's low, the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the March 4th high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the June-2011 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.99 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.39 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.99. 



May wheat was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's huge sell off. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close below last-Friday's gap crossing at $11.34 signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.51 1/2 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off February's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $13.63 1/2. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.51 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.79 3/4.



May Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off Monday's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.23 1/2 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $12.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 2008 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $13.84 3/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March rallycrossing at $10.23 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.85 1/4.



May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.31 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $12.11 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $12.21 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.31 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at $10.01 1/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May renews the rally off November's low, the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $17.59 1/4. Second resistance is the September-2012 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $17.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.37 1/4. Second support is the February 25th low crossing at $15.79.

 

May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-October's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the February 25th low crossing at $441.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $490.00. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the February 25th low crossing at $441.70. Second support is the February 16th low crossing at $435.80. 



May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off December's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.58. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 71.87. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.23.       


Comments
By metmike - March 11, 2022, 12:52 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!!