I have a question for you. The COT report just came out. If the Chinese are selling, would they be under commercial hedgers? Or Large Funds? The commercial hedgers have the smaller short position in many weeks and if they are under a large fund, would the 4 biggest traders and 8 biggest trader numbers move? These numbers are the smallest in over a decade for the shorts. What part are they? Unless they are strictly cash market players and not comex?
Richard,
I have not followed the COT reports in almost a decade and even when I did, wouldn't be able to answer your question for a market like gold.
Anybody else have thoughts?
Do you have a link to the data for me to look at?
Am thinking that this still has your attention:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
China and Gold
Started by GunterK - July 14, 2018, 9:25 p.m.
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/china-takes-control-of-gold.html
"Suffice to say that China is in control of Gold now, and this diminishes the power of the COMEX to manipulate Gold prices. That said, the Bullion Banks likely have the inside track on what’s next for Gold, so if you see them loading up on long side, that is a good sign that Gold is going higher."
I'll just delete my other post on gold from earlier and use yours Richard.
Nice bounce(dead cat?) for Gold. What do you think Richard?
Gold Charts. Just below 1 year lows.
Gold3month:
| |
Gold 1 year below
| |
| |
COT reports. Click on comex and scroll down to gold
https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
you must have deleted the question while I was in the middle of answering it cause when I hit submit it just vanished. But the answer is this move in gold is real and my reason for that answer is the currencies:
Euro
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XEU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07467718820
yen
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13983178980
swissy
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XSF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p74937373380
they are all breaking out to the upside. Gold is headed much higher. I am long 1 mini and will add to that. Maybe Sunday night.
Thanks for that link Richard and your insights about gold.
Just to update gold. I am not adding to my position at this point. waiting for a pull back on 60 min chart.
You will see 1200 gold before you see 1260 gold. Gold is in a long term down trend and short term reaction. Richard keep those stops in and you will have a good short term trade! But this is just a bounce in a down trend.be looking to go short soon. Strong $ weak gold.
JMHO
Thanks cutworm,
How much rain did you get over the weekend?
I agree with you, that gold is in a long-term downtrend and we will see gold $1047 before gold $1260.
The question is simple, is gold just in a bear market rally or still in a bull market? It's easy to test as I do it all the time. Short sell GDX with 100 shares and see if it stays green for longer than it stays in the red. I have a 500 share short position on GDX and the entire trade has been in the green already.
Everybody on the planet is watching the $1400 price level, and that so-called $1050 support price. Only one can win and when gold crosses below $1047, I win a 10 Troy ounce, pure silver coin.
Now here is a really "Big" gold coin, with $1 million CAD face value. Convert this to Troy ounces and see if it's going up or down in price.
We may see $1050 but if we do, Gold has only 24 months to get there. After that the dollar is doomed, but talking about 24 months from now when trading commodities is ridiculous.