For weather that effects the natural gas market(Cooling Degree Days in the Summer help gauge residential natural gas use because natural gas is used to generate electricity for air conditioning:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/8050/
Market Turning to EIA Storage Data as August Natural Gas Called Slightly Lower
8:53 AM
August natural gas futures were set to open Thursday slightly lower at around $2.717/MMBtu, with the market turning its attention to the upcoming release of government storage data, which is expected to show an expanding year-on-five-year deficit despite record-level production.
for week ending July 13, 2018 | Released: July 19, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: July 26, 2018
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (07/13/17) | 5-year average (2013-17) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 07/13/18 | 07/06/18 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 507 | 480 | 27 | 27 | 606 | -16.3 | 613 | -17.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 501 | 477 | 24 | 24 | 731 | -31.5 | 666 | -24.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 144 | 143 | 1 | 1 | 194 | -25.8 | 171 | -15.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 259 | 260 | -1 | -1 | 292 | -11.3 | 309 | -16.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 838 | 843 | -5 | -5 | 1,136 | -26.2 | 1,025 | -18.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 230 | 238 | -8 | -8 | 320 | -28.1 | 291 | -21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 608 | 605 | 3 | 3 | 816 | -25.5 | 734 | -17.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,249 | 2,203 | 46 | 46 | 2,959 | -24.0 | 2,784 | -19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
This was the 7 day period that was covered for the EIA report:
Storage is at the bottom of the 5 year average:
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and ma
From Natural Gas Intelligence:
"EIA’s Big Bullish Storage Miss Shakes Up Natural Gas Market Lulled by Production"
For ngq, 2.704 was the low (before the release of the very bullish EIA #).......cool temps in the forecast had been putting pressure on prices. However, a close higher today will be an upside reversal technical signal. .................new lows for the move today, followed by a close higher.
If we close above yesterdays highs of 2.754, it will look especially powerful on the price charts.
Much depends on the latest outlook for temperatures:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/8050/
| Natural gas 3 months |
Naturalgas 1 year below
Naturalgas 5 years below
| Naturalgas10years below
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Today's EIA was tied with the EIA week ending 4/13 for the most bullish in relation to the DJ news survey mean for the most bullish since the very bullish report for the week ending 1/19/18. This being 5 lower than the prior (holiday) week on 16 fewer CDDs tells me there very likely was a heck of a demand drop due to the July 4th holiday week.
Regionally, the NE and Midwest/Mountain and Pacific injections rose/fell vs the prior week, which makes sense since they were significantly cooler/warmer for today's report. However, the south central was quite a bit cooler and yet had a -5 vs a +2 the prior week. That is counterintuitive although this may be because the holiday demand slowdown effect was possibly relatively large there thus raising the injection in the prior report enough so that today's number was more bullish despite the cooler wx.
Larry,
Could this mean that industrial demand is much greater than what we think/thought from a roaring economy?
Mike,
It could very well be (would that cause the south-central region to be affected more), but I always caution folks about reading too much into one report due to the chance it was an anomaly. Nevertheless, it was quite a bullish report as it was a whopping 12 under the DJ news survey mean guess.