This is what that soy export number would like like on Monday's inspection chart (red line). Would be the first *bad* week since Sept.
Another thing to consider... Outstanding soy sales (white line) at 10.8 mmt are below avg for the date (green line is 2020, purple is 2021).
Here's what that looks like in context. It's a push, but it's much more reasonable than the 30 mmt suggested a few years ago.
I discussed this topic last week. China uses most of its soy crop for food use. USDA shows 21/22 soy food use in China at 14.8 mmt off a 16.4 mmt crop. Total domestic use 116.7M with imports of 100M. That math suggests China's import program isn't going anywhere for now...
Interesting to see NASS's first 2021 #corn yield assessment vs. the last. Illinois was the only top state that was overstated in August, though IA and MN both added 12 bu/acre, helping nat'l yield rise to a record 177 bu/acre. Drought was well captured early on in the Dakotas.
Iowa corn conditions were 61% good/exc at the start of Aug, a multiyear low for the date. Many areas in Iowa were still waiting for rain when the Aug survey was taken. Yield jumped to 198 in Sep. On the other hand, disease in Illinois corn was not apparent for many until harvest.