@kannbwx

Analysts see USDA taking 3.8 mmt out of South American #soybeans next week and 2.7 mmt out of #corn. 

I know not everyone loves this format, but these estimates are "guessing USDA." Reuters also polls for analysts' own estimates. That pegs #Brazil's soy at 139.6M, range 131-143.2.

@kannbwx

Analysts see Dec. 1 U.S. #corn stocks at a 3yr high, #soybeans up 6% YOY, and #wheat at the lowest levels since 2007, down 16.5% YOY.

 Non-controversial quarterly stock and production estimates mean U.S. ending stocks are not seen deviating too much from the December predictions.

@kannbwx

U.S. winter #wheat acres in 2022 are seen up 7% from the 3yr avg to a six-year high of 34.26 mln acres. 

HRW acres are pegged up 6% from the 3yr avg and also a 6yr high. 

SRW acres would be down 1.4% on the year but 11.4% above the 3yr avg. More wwt  more double crop soy chances?

@kannbwx

What do we think? Is a 1.8% increase in total winter #wheat plantings over last year sufficient? 

The 2022 trade guess of about 34.3M acres compares with 33.7M in 2021 and 36.2M in 2016. A 111-year low of 30.5M was seen in 2020.

@kannbwx

The trade guess for U.S. winter #wheat area has been too high vs. the January reported area in 17 of the last 22 years.

 But 3 of the 5 under-guess cases were in the last four years, possibly suggesting the trade is more likely to underestimate acres now.

@kannbwx

The final set of trade estimates for USDA's enormous Jan. 12 data dump is the world ending stocks, which encompass all the U.S., South American and other adjustments. #Corn and #soybeans are seen down from last month but #wheat is seen slightly higher.

Bullish Beans! But the weather for next week is still turning bearish.

@kannbwx

USDA chops 2021/22 #Brazil and #Argentina #soybeans by a combined 8 mmt, a lot more than analysts expected. Argentina #corn down 0.5 mmt but Brazil down 3 mmt.

++++++++++++++++++++++++

Keep in mind, this is the only item from USDA's Wednesday set of reports that is a component of the 2022/23 balance sheets - everything else is 2021/22. USDA will tease their 22/23 outlooks late next month, but the first official 22/23 S&Ds are due in May.

Bearish for Chi weather, a bit bullish for KC wheat.

@kannbwx

U.S. winter #wheat seedings come in a bit above the trade guess based on a much larger SRW area than expected (a 7-year high). 

HRW was a bit lower than analysts thought but up slightly on the year.

@kannbwx

USDA left 21/22 #China #corn imports unch @ 26 mmt, soy imports unch @ 100 mmt, wheat unch @ 9.5 mmt. Argy #wheat crop +0.5 mmt. Paraguay's #soybeans down 1.5 mmt to 8.5 mmt due to drought.

@kannbwx

All Wednesday's updates from the USDA trickle into here: world ending stock projections. #Corn came in below expectations and #soybeans well below based on losses in South America, but #wheat was a bit heavier.

metmike: Very bullish beans.

Bullish....but for how long.  Market reaction seems kind of muted.  

Huuuge rains, 3+ inches on the way the next 2 weeks in the drought areas of SA!